theHotHead wrote:EK at least you admitted the very clear and obvious connection between creating chances and scoring goals.
To address your main point about putting the chances away, your Spurs comparisons make another point - the quality of the strikers plays a big part. Spurs' strikers are miles better than Brighton's strikers.
What you are doing is inferring that it is LESS important to create the chances and MORE important to score them. No its not, the 2 are linked and will always be. Create more chances you score more goals, providing you have decent strikers. The 2 are as important as each other
How many times do we see promoted teams creating chances but their strikers are not that good and so squander far too many of them?!!
You clearly didn't read the comment in full ....
Watford created more chances last season than 7 other EPL sides - but they got relegated creating more chances did not lead to more goals.
Simply creating chances means absolutely nothing without players putting them in the net ....
Take the game against Leeds, for all the chances they created, if Saka had scored from our one decent chance late on we would have won ...
xG is a useful metric over time but in individual games it means very little ...
Take the game Spurs v Man City the xG was 0.69 v 2.10 ... that tells you that Man City had a three times greater chance of scoring than Spurs ... but was that actually true?
If you look at the data behind the xG from that game ...
Spurs only had five xG events the two goals both of which were .20 (
ie likely to be scored just 1 in 5) and three more chances .17 .08 .04 so statistically unlikely to score more than one goal, yet they got two and could easily have had three.
City had 19 xG events the best was a 0.5 (
scored 1 in 2) that was the late save from Lloris, all the other 18 were less than 1 in 7 chances
So even though City had by far the higher xG they only had one "
good chance" whereas Spurs had three "
half chances"
Over the season creating a lot of small chances, Liverpool had by far the most last season, will lead to goals ... but that's not the only way to win Spurs beat City by creating just three half chances and scoring two of them ... Leicester won a title by scoring from a ridiculously high percentage of their chances ... there's not just one way to win games.
Right now we are creating very few chances but what's far worse is even when we create a good chance we fail to score ... that will come right quality strikers don't suddenly stop scoring ... but it needs to happen soon, the NLD game would be a good start.