LMAO wrote:Callum wrote:LMAO wrote:Va-Va-Voom wrote:Texas hasn't voted blue since 1976, can't see it happening.
There's never been an incumbent Trump before to put Texas in play 8 years before it was supposed to be.
Not saying Texas is definitely going to vote Biden, but it's going to shock a lot of people this year, whether it flips or Trump only manages to win by 1-2 percentage points.
Trump only won Texas by 9 points despite polls indicating his margin of victory would be far greater, and Biden is undoubtedly less hated there than Clinton is. Ted Cruz also only beat Beto by 2.5 points in the Senate election in 2018.
Still, I think Biden would have to be leading by 12+ points nationally to swing Texas. If he manages that he might be looking at a 350-400 EC haul, which seems incredibly optimistic.
Oh, it's undoubtedly optimistic. But just as the race could tighten to Biden +3 (in which case, Trump has a shot), it has an equal chance to go the other way and end up a Biden +14 landslide.
I'm expecting a 2012ish Obama performance from Biden (switch Arizona and North Carolina to blue and Ohio and Iowa to red, but otherwise, largely the same map), but I also wouldn't be surprised if we got a pre-1992-style 400+ EV landslide.
Yeah, still so much can happen, but with far fewer undecided voters this year I think we'll end up with something close to the +6/7 point advantage Biden has now in terms of popular vote share. The issue is if it closes to +3/4 then it suddenly becomes incredibly tight.