American Politics

[jayramfootball]

Glad that we have a political consensus here, as this forum seems to be exclusively populated by left-leaning members and plenty of centrists. We must all want Biden to win then.

How did you draw that conclusion?
Why would centrists want Biden to win? (or should I say the Harris - Biden administration)

[Pat Rice in Short Shorts]

https://nypost.com/2020/09/15/cnbc-host ... interview/

Freudian slip of the funniest sort.

[Pat Rice in Short Shorts]

Glad that we have a political consensus here, as this forum seems to be exclusively populated by left-leaning members and plenty of centrists. We must all want Biden to win then.

How did you draw that conclusion?
Why would centrists want Biden to win? (or should I say the Harris - Biden administration)

Funny that they BOTH said the same thing today. We all know Harris is Biden's Vice Senator pick.

[jayramfootball]

Glad that we have a political consensus here, as this forum seems to be exclusively populated by left-leaning members and plenty of centrists. We must all want Biden to win then.

How did you draw that conclusion?
Why would centrists want Biden to win? (or should I say the Harris - Biden administration)

Funny that they BOTH said the same thing today. We all know Harris is Biden's Vice Senator pick.

Yes, Biden called it the Harris-Biden administration and he was reading from a teleprompter. No mistake.
The bait and switch is on to get the radical left into the Oval office.

[LMAO]

No surprise that Kansas City Chiefs fans booed the woke virtue signalling, that's not being racist it's just being fed up with the woke elite posturing. Guaranteed that booing will only get louder. If the EPL does the same woke signalling when fans return they will also get booed ... sports fans are not sheep ... keep politics and sport separated or get used to the booing.

Since when is "unity" political? No one boos during a moment of silence for fallen soldiers, first responders, etc. But as soon as there's a moment of silence for racial injustice and coming together, those yokels take it upon themselves to boo. Really?

Seriously you equating the death of heroes in service with supporting BLM? just how woke can you get? That comparison for many, and I happily include myself in that number, is very deeply offensive.

Can you help me out here, EK—same goes for you, Jayram. Where was the support for BLM?



I can't seem to find it nor did I hear a message of support for BLM

Funny how you both jumped straight to "BLM bad" when BLM wasn't even brought up.

[LMAO]

Assuming there's no clear winner in the debates or any "October surprises" (e.g. FBI and Hillary's emails, and the leaked Trump tape):



Biden takes AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC and NE's 2nd district in an almost reverse of 2016—305 to 233 compared to 232 and 306. Least confident about NC and AZ for Biden, but I've still given Trump FL and GA in 2020.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

(Also, disclaimer, this is all a bit of fun. I've not painted this map in with any real confidence).

Flip Florida. It'll be close per usual, but it's looking like a strong possibility to flip back to the Dems. And I think Maine-2 flips back to blue.

And Carolina Reaper hot take (though not entirely since it's in play this election): flip Texas to blue also.

[Va-Va-Voom]

Texas hasn't voted blue since 1976, can't see it happening.

[Pat Rice in Short Shorts]

Here you are my laughing mate!

https://www.wruf.com/headlines/2020/06/ ... -movement/


It is telling that these sports leagues are walking back using the BLM slogan and have gone to "end racism"...which is pretty much something that everyone BUT BLM and the KKK seems to agree with.

[Pat Rice in Short Shorts]

Texas hasn't voted blue since 1976, can't see it happening.

Nor Florida given Trump's surge in Hispanic support (50%) . The GOP turn out the vote effort in the Villages has hit a snag with several unfortunate walker accidents. The surprise will MN I bet. He only needs to change 60k votes and the Iron Range, outlying Minneapolis commuter towns having flipped already and the violence in Minneapolis will turn even more folks around. WI will be Trump's again.

[Callum]

Assuming there's no clear winner in the debates or any "October surprises" (e.g. FBI and Hillary's emails, and the leaked Trump tape):



Biden takes AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC and NE's 2nd district in an almost reverse of 2016—305 to 233 compared to 232 and 306. Least confident about NC and AZ for Biden, but I've still given Trump FL and GA in 2020.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

(Also, disclaimer, this is all a bit of fun. I've not painted this map in with any real confidence).

Flip Florida. It'll be close per usual, but it's looking like a strong possibility to flip back to the Dems. And I think Maine-2 flips back to blue.

And Carolina Reaper hot take (though not entirely since it's in play this election): flip Texas to blue also.

I just can't trust Florida, and I know Biden has held a narrow lead in the polls but I just have a feeling it'll trend more towards Trump as we get close to the election. I wouldn't be surprised if it went blue but I'd need to see Biden expand on his lead there before I feel confident in that.

Texas is incredibly interesting but I think 2020 is just a little too early for the Democrats; perhaps in 2024/ 2028. The same for Georgia.

[LMAO]

Texas hasn't voted blue since 1976, can't see it happening.

There's never been an incumbent Trump before to put Texas in play 8 years before it was supposed to be.

Not saying Texas is definitely going to vote Biden, but it's going to shock a lot of people this year, whether it flips or Trump only manages to win by 1-2 percentage points.

[Callum]

Texas hasn't voted blue since 1976, can't see it happening.

There's never been an incumbent Trump before to put Texas in play 8 years before it was supposed to be.

Not saying Texas is definitely going to vote Biden, but it's going to shock a lot of people this year, whether it flips or Trump only manages to win by 1-2 percentage points.

Trump only won Texas by 9 points despite polls indicating his margin of victory would be far greater, and Biden is undoubtedly less hated there than Clinton is. Ted Cruz also only beat Beto by 2.5 points in the Senate election in 2018.

Still, I think Biden would have to be leading by 12+ points nationally to swing Texas. If he manages that he might be looking at a 350-400 EC haul, which seems incredibly optimistic.

[LMAO]

Assuming there's no clear winner in the debates or any "October surprises" (e.g. FBI and Hillary's emails, and the leaked Trump tape):



Biden takes AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC and NE's 2nd district in an almost reverse of 2016—305 to 233 compared to 232 and 306. Least confident about NC and AZ for Biden, but I've still given Trump FL and GA in 2020.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

(Also, disclaimer, this is all a bit of fun. I've not painted this map in with any real confidence).

Flip Florida. It'll be close per usual, but it's looking like a strong possibility to flip back to the Dems. And I think Maine-2 flips back to blue.

And Carolina Reaper hot take (though not entirely since it's in play this election): flip Texas to blue also.

I just can't trust Florida, and I know Biden has held a narrow lead in the polls but I just have a feeling it'll trend more towards Trump as we get close to the election. I wouldn't be surprised if it went blue but I'd need to see Biden expand on his lead there before I feel confident in that.

Texas is incredibly interesting but I think 2020 is just a little too early for the Democrats; perhaps in 2024/ 2028. The same for Georgia.

Yeah, I don't completely trust Florida either, but the state comes through every so often for Democrats. Biden has made a huge dent in Trump's advantage with old people who didn't appreciate being told to sacrifice themselves so the economy can reopen.

Georgia doesn't have the demographics yet (i.e., Atlanta and its suburbs aren't enough to outvote the ruby red rural parts of Georgia) to overcome Kemp's meddling.

Like I said to Vava, Texas is going to shock many people this year imo. The demographics have rapidly changed over the past decade in favor of the Democrats. I forget who said it (might've been Beto but idr), but to paraphrase, "Texas isn't a red state, Texas is a low turnout state." If Texas can get to at least 64% turnout, it'll go to Biden; 60-64% is a tossup, and less than 60% turnout is Trump.

[Callum]

Assuming there's no clear winner in the debates or any "October surprises" (e.g. FBI and Hillary's emails, and the leaked Trump tape):



Biden takes AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC and NE's 2nd district in an almost reverse of 2016—305 to 233 compared to 232 and 306. Least confident about NC and AZ for Biden, but I've still given Trump FL and GA in 2020.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

(Also, disclaimer, this is all a bit of fun. I've not painted this map in with any real confidence).

Flip Florida. It'll be close per usual, but it's looking like a strong possibility to flip back to the Dems. And I think Maine-2 flips back to blue.

And Carolina Reaper hot take (though not entirely since it's in play this election): flip Texas to blue also.

I just can't trust Florida, and I know Biden has held a narrow lead in the polls but I just have a feeling it'll trend more towards Trump as we get close to the election. I wouldn't be surprised if it went blue but I'd need to see Biden expand on his lead there before I feel confident in that.

Texas is incredibly interesting but I think 2020 is just a little too early for the Democrats; perhaps in 2024/ 2028. The same for Georgia.

Yeah, I don't completely trust Florida either, but the state comes through every so often for Democrats. Biden has made a huge dent in Trump's advantage with old people who didn't appreciate being told to sacrifice themselves so the economy can reopen.

Georgia doesn't have the demographics yet (i.e., Atlanta and its suburbs aren't enough to outvote the ruby red rural parts of Georgia) to overcome Kemp's meddling.

Like I said to Vava, Texas is going to shock many people this year imo. The demographics have rapidly changed over the past decade in favor of the Democrats. I forget who said it (might've been Beto but idr), but to paraphrase, "Texas isn't a red state, Texas is a low turnout state." If Texas can get to at least 64% turnout, it'll go to Biden; 60-64% is a tossup, and less than 60% turnout is Trump.

Well, I'll be the first to raise a glass to you if you're right.

[LMAO]

Texas hasn't voted blue since 1976, can't see it happening.

There's never been an incumbent Trump before to put Texas in play 8 years before it was supposed to be.

Not saying Texas is definitely going to vote Biden, but it's going to shock a lot of people this year, whether it flips or Trump only manages to win by 1-2 percentage points.

Trump only won Texas by 9 points despite polls indicating his margin of victory would be far greater, and Biden is undoubtedly less hated there than Clinton is. Ted Cruz also only beat Beto by 2.5 points in the Senate election in 2018.

Still, I think Biden would have to be leading by 12+ points nationally to swing Texas. If he manages that he might be looking at a 350-400 EC haul, which seems incredibly optimistic.

Oh, it's undoubtedly optimistic. But just as the race could tighten to Biden +3 (in which case, Trump has a shot), it has an equal chance to go the other way and end up a Biden +14 landslide.

I'm expecting a 2012ish Obama performance from Biden (switch Arizona and North Carolina to blue and Ohio and Iowa to red, but otherwise, largely the same map), but I also wouldn't be surprised if we got a pre-1992-style 400+ EV landslide.