Tony Adams wrote:Wtf is xG?
Something no one uses other than Arsenal fans and only then to support a dying cause.
We can all see not much if anything has improved under Arteta but but xg
by Ach » Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:47 pm
Tony Adams wrote:Wtf is xG?
by VCC » Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:49 pm
Jedi wrote:Tony Adams wrote:Wtf is xG?
Taken from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/20 ... er-league/What are “expected goals” (xG)?
To work out a team's “expected goals” (xG) for a match, every shot must be analysed and given an "Expected goal value" (EGV).
EGV is the probability that any given shot will end up as a goal.
EGV is based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from, the proximity of defenders, the nature of the attack (i.e a direct free-kick or a penalty). The EGV of a shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league, so it expects for instance that a shot from 10 yards out plum in front of goal with no defenders nearby has a high chance of ending up as a goal.
From an analysis of every shot's EGV in a match, an "expected goals" (xG) figure can be placed on each team from that match. If a team has a higher xG figure than actual goals scored, it will broadly be because of wasteful finishing or good goalkeeping, or both. Likewise if a team is scoring more than its xG then it could be down to moments of individual brilliance from an attacker or say a goalkeeping error.Why is xG useful?
xG's value is that it gives an indication of whether a team's results are based on sustainable factors like the consistent creation or denial of chances, or whether it is down to less sustainable factors like freakishly high chance conversion or sensational goalkeeping.
It also gives a far more reliable picture as to us the results of individual matches reflected the pattern of play. Take Germany's 7-1 win against Brazil in the 2014 World Cup for instance, in which Brazil actually had more shots and possession, but were way down on xG compared to their opponents.
xG can be thought of as effectively evaluating "chances", whereas "shots on goal" does not discriminate between a 35-yard sighter and a missed open goal from close range.
By analysing every shot from last season and the season before, the STATS team have been able to identify a number of patterns, which we can use to inform how this season might pan out.
by Arsenal Tone » Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:57 pm
by Jedi » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:01 pm
Ach wrote:Tony Adams wrote:Wtf is xG?
Something no one uses other than Arsenal fans and only then to support a dying cause.
We can all see not much if anything has improved under Arteta but but xg
Ach wrote:Jedi wrote:Ach wrote:Results are more important wouldn't you say?
We're getting them despite not playing that well. third is within our grasp. Would've taken this.
Yes, that's what i was saying last season... But then our bad performances caught up to us and the meltdown of epic proportions happened and we ended up being 5th despite being favorites for 3rd due to our relatively easy set of fixtures (on paper).
I can only hope the same doesn't happen this season.
Agreed but last season we still had the stench of cancer from the previous regime. This season we are much tougher. Bar the Watford calamity, we have been comfortable in most games. Lost to Liverpool I know which is understandable but I no longer watch our games as a nervous wreck.
Comfortable today
Up to third and with 3 of our defenders coming back from injury after the break and hopefully Laca as well, it's a great time to be a gooner.
by VCC » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:04 pm
Tony Adams wrote:There are lies, damn lies and statistics.
Most dangerous place to be? In bed. Statistically more people die in bed than anywhere else.
by Zanatos3 » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:20 pm
Jedi wrote:Brendan Rodgers finished 14/15 in 6th place. Next season, he got sacked and Liverpool appointed Klopp after 8 league games 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.
After 30 league games in Klopp's first season, what position did Liverpool finish the season in?
They finished 8th.
Jurgen Klopp finished his debut season 2 positions lower than his predecessor.
Can this cancerous "new manager bounce" concept die out already. Just because a new manager brings positive energy to the club, doesn't mean he can perform miracles and fix all systemic problems in his first 3 weeks.
by Jedi » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:28 pm
Zanatos3 wrote:Jedi wrote:Brendan Rodgers finished 14/15 in 6th place. Next season, he got sacked and Liverpool appointed Klopp after 8 league games 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.
After 30 league games in Klopp's first season, what position did Liverpool finish the season in?
They finished 8th.
Jurgen Klopp finished his debut season 2 positions lower than his predecessor.
Can this cancerous "new manager bounce" concept die out already. Just because a new manager brings positive energy to the club, doesn't mean he can perform miracles and fix all systemic problems in his first 3 weeks.
But This is the January Transfer Window . . .
A New Manager can Change some of the personnel!
Money gone from Paying off Emery Early YES.... But Sell Musti & Xhaka & we have at least 30+mil to bring in young players
in positions that we NEED...AKA DM, LB/RB, or CB,
Sell Early & you have a Known Vacancy & can Buy middle or Later, on or before the transfer deadline....
But we still prefer to Buy 1st, then sell for a loss....we could get at least 25mil Right Now for Xhaka, Still.
by elkanofan » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:49 pm
Its been dead for many years. Since 2011 i noticed the steep downward spiral.Jack The Ripper wrote:The "new manager bounce" that every team in world football gets usually lasts about 5 or 6 games, so Arteta has only got 1 more match before its over. Arteta has had nowhere near the impact that most have like Nigel Pearson for example, however we are stuck with it for now.. so we just need to accept what we are. I don't have any expectations anymore.
Football is becoming dead to everyone, its full of robotic athletes, and the players with actual footballing skill are dying out of the game and being replaced by the robotic athletes. VAR has ruined football so much, its taken all the fun out of the game... sad times, I barely watch these days, I tune in for only Arsenal games but we only play for 38 minutes roughly.. so find myself falling asleep after 65 minutes or so.
I'm drifting away from the sport and its only a good thing for me.. my life is taking me in a different direction. Football was fun once but most of the life has been sucked out of it. I see the majority of the youth players are just athlete types, but without any actual skill or talent level or brain. Its a shame really as it was a good sport once upon a time.
Liverpool have 11 games to go to beat our invincibles record and I'm sad to say they could do it, that will be the final nail in the coffin for us, the only thing we live off and cum for will be gone... its basically the only thing our club has left. Once thats gones then we are no identity left.. I hope Liverpool get beat but can't see it.. 11 games will go quickly.
Our stadium is not Arsenal, it not our home, its been a total disaster and nightmare.. zero prem titles since we moved too Emirates, which is a place over 3,000 miles away in the Gulf, its nothing to do with Highbury or London, Highbury is our home, not a arab emirates. I could cry while typing this but I am so lack of energy from it all that I barely feel I thing.
by Salibatelli » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:34 pm
by Highbury Hillbilly » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:28 am
by Godlop » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:46 am
aniym wrote:The lack of a new manager bounce has been disappointing, but also shows that it wasn't Emery holding the team back. We're seeing the same lack of commitment and inability to see games out, even under a manager the players reportedly like.
I'm more sympathetic to Arteta now because I do believe he's trying to get the most out of his squad. But he needs to push for a clear out in the summer, no ifs, no buts. Understandably he can't do that now given our threadbare squad. But if he can't make his voice heard and push to sign players in the positions we need, we'll have years of this kind of unstable football to look forward to.
by Zanatos3 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:07 am
Jedi wrote:Zanatos3 wrote:Jedi wrote:Brendan Rodgers finished 14/15 in 6th place. Next season, he got sacked and Liverpool appointed Klopp after 8 league games 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.
After 30 league games in Klopp's first season, what position did Liverpool finish the season in?
They finished 8th.
Jurgen Klopp finished his debut season 2 positions lower than his predecessor.
Can this cancerous "new manager bounce" concept die out already. Just because a new manager brings positive energy to the club, doesn't mean he can perform miracles and fix all systemic problems in his first 3 weeks.
But This is the January Transfer Window . . .
A New Manager can Change some of the personnel!
Money gone from Paying off Emery Early YES.... But Sell Musti & Xhaka & we have at least 30+mil to bring in young players
in positions that we NEED...AKA DM, LB/RB, or CB,
Sell Early & you have a Known Vacancy & can Buy middle or Later, on or before the transfer deadline....
But we still prefer to Buy 1st, then sell for a loss....we could get at least 25mil Right Now for Xhaka, Still.
January transfer window is awful if you want to look for anything other than squad players to make up the numbers.
I'd rather wait till summer than waste money on trash now on another flop.
by theHotHead » Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:04 am
Tony Adams wrote:Name me three 'massive' improvements.Godlop wrote:I'm glad the Arteta appointment revealed who on this forum understands football and who doesn't
If you don't see the massive improvements Arteta has already bought to this club despite a huge amount of injuries and inheriting a squad that lacks fitness, believe and quality you are one dumb human.
Today was a poor performance and there will be more of this later in the season.
Learn to deal with it and trust the process.
You should aim your unhappiness at the board who once again seem to refuse to back our manager properly.
Anyway if you don't support Arteta please do the rest of us a favour and f**k off.
by theHotHead » Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:05 am
Ach wrote:Tony Adams wrote:Wtf is xG?
Something no one uses other than Arsenal fans and only then to support a dying cause.
We can all see not much if anything has improved under Arteta but but xg