by Mike Dean » Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:32 am
If Germany did not have serious injury/suspension issues, I would have picked them over France because of their superior team play. However they have three big loses.
Losing Gomez is a serious serious blow. The team did not have any rhythm on offense until Gomez was inserted as a striker. Having Gomez up front allowed Muller to have more freedom and he was able to link up better with Ozil. Gomez also allowed a more physical presence up front. The Gotze experiment as a false 9 simply did not work.
With Khedira out, it puts a lot of pressure on Kroos. Khedira provided balance to their midfield. Schweinstiger is old and slow. He was able to make up for it because of his excellent positional awareness but that was against an italy side that slows things down. He will have a very hard time staying with the pace of the French side that attacks a lot especially after having played almost the entire match including overtime against Italy.....and that is if he is even fit to play to begin with. Apparently he strained a ligament in his knee in the match against Italy.
Big big big loss with Hummels out due to accumulation of yellows. Hummels + Boateng is a very experienced backline which was needed against France. Hummels being out, puts a lot of pressure on Boateng. Mustafa will be brought it to replace Hummels. While Mustafa is pretty solid himself, Hummels is more mobile and offers more on attack as well on occasion.
Germany has an edge in team cohesion and confidence. Unfortunately that gap closed down because of France's display against Iceland. I am sure the French team feels great about itself now.
On the fitness/tiredness issue. Germany will have an extra day of rest but France played a far less grueling game and less minutes than Germany did and they dont have the injury/suspension issues as the Germans. If the Germans fall behind early, the physical and mental fatigue will start taking a toll on them. France also gets a well rested Kante back, who was also serving a suspension due to accumulation of yellows.
Germany needs to attack the French defense and keep them under pressure. We all know that Kos can have a few brain farts here and there. Also, France's weakest point is Adil Rami. Germany should hope that Deschamps stupid enough to put him back in the lineup after the suspension he has served for yellows. Rami is incredibly slow and gets caught out of position far too often. Their version of Mertesacker.
There is one area where Germany has a definite advantage over France and that is at goalkeeping. Neuer is one of the best if not the best while Lloris is quiet average and more importantly a Spur. So he is bound to choke.
Last edited by
Mike Dean on Mon Jul 04, 2016 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.