Betting Tips From ManagerXI

[ManagerXI]

Hello Folks. Hope everyone had a good summer. As the Premier League kicks off this weekend I will be back with a new thread which will once again focus primarily on the Premier League but I will add in some bets from various other leagues and sports throughout the year.

The last thread went very well with these final stats:

Strike rate: 89%
Level Stakes Profit: 3.96
Level Stakes ROI: 43.9%

I will be compiling a database of stats and team strategies before sharing my first tip but it is good to be back and remember to bet responsibly and lets take the bookies money gradually over the season.

[Smitty_AFC]

R.O.I. = 43.9% ???

[Jackson]

R.O.I. = 43.9% ???

I can't make the numbers add up. With a level stakes profit of 3.96 over say 40x 1unit bets it should be 9.9%? Unless he's calculating it v the size of his bankroll. ie bankroll of 9 units, ROI =3.96/9= 0.44.

[ManagerXI]

The maths are straightforward for a level stakes ROI calculation:

If you bet £100 on each of my 9 selections from my previous thread you would have made a profit of £396.

The calculation is: [£396 / (9 x£100)] x 100 = Level Stakes ROI Percentage

[ManagerXI]

I'll kick off the thread with some season long bets in the English Premier League and one for the remainder of this month.

Sky Bet have given some generous odds in the season long betting markets in the hopes of attracting new customers at the start of the season so of course we will take advantage of that from the new owners - welcome to the game lads.



For starters I'm looking at the relegation market and the bookies have Norwich, Watford and Sunderland as the favourites to go down but they must not have been watching the transfer market never mind the opening weekend! They are mistakenly basing their opinion on teams form last season in the championship. Norwich made 10 transfers in the summer while Watford made 15 transfers and they are of a very high quality for a promoted team. Etienne Capoute has arrived from Tottenham (£6m), Jose Jurado from Spartak Moscow (£6m), Valon Behrami from Hamburg (£3m) while Matěj Vydra has been captured from Udinese (£6m) and even he will struggle to dislodge the fantastic front two of Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney who has scored at least 20 goals in each of the last 3 seasons.

Recommended Bet: Bournemouth To Finish Bottom @ 6.5 (Sky Bet)

Next I'll Look at the other end of the table and for the moment I can't split Chelsea and Man City and I think again it will be a two horse race.

Man Utd are lacking pace and penetration and Rooney has gone past his peak and there is currently nobody of a high enough quality in the squad to back him up. Arsenal will dominate possession in the majority of games this season but they lack a striker with a good work rate and they will play very narrow this season from what I have seen so far and teams with a compact defence will be able to reduce them to a handful of shots on target so they will drop points this season with a few 1-1 draws. Tottenham have the same problem again, they looked poor going forward against Utd and their defence has remained their weak spot. I see them struggling to get a run of wins away from home which Chelsea are very good at doing. Liverpool are once again very much a team in transition and this won't be their year.

Recommended Bet: Chelsea / Man City 'Dual Forecast' @ 3.25 (Sky Bet)

I would worry for the traders in Sky Bet with this one. They have gotten the odds exceptionally wrong with the market "Bottom 3 on 1st September 2015". The two that are stand out candidates at this stage are West Brom who have more than a fair chance of having no points at the end of the month and Norwich who conceded 3 goals at home to Crystal Palace on the opening day and have a couple of tricky away fixtures where they might be able to nick 1 point in total. I would be amazed if one is not in the bottom and more than likely both will be propping up the table.

Recommended Bets: (1) Norwich To Be In The Bottom 3 on 1st September 2015 @ 2.1 (Sky Bet) - (2) West Brom To Be In The Bottom 3 on 1st September 2015 @ 2.1 (Sky Bet)

[Jackson]

The maths are straightforward for a level stakes ROI calculation:

If you bet £100 on each of my 9 selections from my previous thread you would have made a profit of £396.

The calculation is: [£396 / (9 x£100)] x 100 = Level Stakes ROI Percentage

You can't really quote ROI on a sample size of 9, I thought you were talking about a season's worth of bets. If another one of those winners out of the 9 goes down (say @ 1.95) you're looking at halving the quoted ROI.

[ManagerXI]

I was talking to some people who followed my previous log and they pointed out that they were not interested in season long bets but were more interested in a tip that they can add into an accumulator for that week so I will be sticking to bets that will be settled quickly.

They also pointed out that for a betting log it is more entertaining for the reader to see an objective and to show monetary amounts for the bets to see the progress of the log bet by bet.

I will take this and work on a structure for a betting log that will be more entertaining, and profitable. At the moment I am thinking of running a betting log that will target the biggest bookmaker in Ireland as they like to show they have a sense of humour and more importantly I can place the bets in their shops which gets around the problem of having the online account limited.

I will be back soon when I have a definite structure and a good tip to share.

In the meantime, good luck.

[ManagerXI]

Fair point Jackson. I will do things different than quoting ROI on small sample sizes.

[AAIRE99]

good man jackson for ruining the fecking thread

moar bets?