England's four Champions League places at risk?

[Dejan]

about time

[UFGN]

about time

Top four trophy tho

[Big17]

It wont happen.

[UFGN]

It wont happen.

If the maths dictate it, it will happen

There are no grey areas with this.

[Santi]

Rules can change, plus the teams will pick up form this year and recover it. We've had 1 round of games, anything can happen yet, Man Utd could win it ffs.

Think our teams are too big to let it happen, even if it did they'd recover it quickly.

[Witty Futty]

I don't think this will happen. I think that English teams are going to have better results this season, which means that this 4 Champions League places won't be in danger!

[Royal Gooner]

Remember we have 4 teams in the CL GS, Italy only have 2 so if either Juve or Roma go out then the coefficiant is pretty much secure this year. The EL is irrelevant as the points awarded are Mickey Mouse.

[CukiZeGerman]

Remember we have 4 teams in the CL GS, Italy only have 2 so if either Juve or Roma go out then the coefficiant is pretty much secure this year. The EL is irrelevant as the points awarded are Mickey Mouse.

Remember that it's about the number of teams still in european competitions compared to the number of teams crashed out.

the final coefficient for a country is - the coefficient of each team added together and divided by the number of teams that were able to play in european competitions
So, for italy it's 5/6 and for England it's 6/8.
Even if English teams go further in the CL - there is still a posibility that Italy gets a higher coefficient.

It's all explained here:

I was thinking it might be good to answer some questions about the current situation between England and Italy in the UEFA Coefficents. There seems to be a lot of question and wrong answers, so I would like to try to settle it as good as possible. And also, I would like to sum it up for myself as it is a bit much to chew. Therefor I present the England\Italia coefficents FAQ!!!

If you want to know more or check the standings, check this site. It is the source I have mostly used.

Why are we even talking about this, the season has just started?

Yes. This will not be a "England is doomed" type post. This is just to get some facts on the table.

What is the situation?

England and Italy is fighting for the third place in the UEFA coefficents table. The team in third place will get three teams into the Champions League, and one into the qualifiers. The team in forth place, will get only two directly into the Champions League and one into the qualifiers.

Before the season started England had 62.034 points while Italy had 58.931 for a difference of 3.103. So far this season England has taken 3.625 points and Italy 2.666.

So England is pulling away?

Not quite. At the start of the season the points get pretty weird. At the moment Liechtenstein is leading with 5 points and they have all teams knocked out. Points are given for qualifying for the Champions League and for qualifying matches. English teams played 12 qualifiers and had three teams directly qualified for the Champions League. Italian teams played four qualifiers and had two teams directly qualified. On the first "real" match week, Italy took 6 points and England 5. It is also worth pointing out that every Italian team, except maybe Napoli met the on paper best team in their group. At least Tottenham, Arsenal and United did not.

Wait, how is Liechtenstein leading with 5 points if Italy took 6 this matchweek?

Oh, yes. Every point the team gain is divided by the number of teams from that country playing in Europe. England started with 8 and Italy has 6. At the moment England has 6 left and Italy 5, but every point is still divided by the original sum. That means that in reality Italy took 1 point this round, and England 0.635. With WestHam, Southampton and Sampdoria out, there is also a lot of dead weight essentially meaning that the leagues will carry some deadweight for the rest of the season.

How do you get points?

In principle it is two points for a victory and one for a draw. For qualifiers the points are halfed. In both competitions. Then there is four bonus points for qualifying for the Champions League. Five bonus points for qualifying for the round of 16 in the Champions League. And one bonus point for qualifying for the quarter final, semi final or final of both competitions.

This is of course a bit wrong for the total as the leagues has a different number of teams. An "Italian point" is worth 0,166 real points, and a "English point" is worth 0,125.

So how many points does Italy need?

To find out that, we of course need to find out how many points England get. If England reaches their average over the last five years (16.078) Italy would need 19,182. This is 0.182 more than they managed last year, but well above what they have reached any other year.

If England manages the same as last year (13.571), Italy would need 16,674.

England has been above Italy every year for a long time except last year, why should that be more than a flash in the pan?

Good question, imagined person. The fact is that there is a pattern. The last five years the gap has been 6.7, 3.8, 2.0, 2.6 and -5.4 in Englands advantage. It is not enough to make it a huge statistical significance, but enough for it to be somewhat relevant.

Lazio crashed out of the Champions League. That can't be good for Italy?

Yes, it can actually. Last year, the same thing happened to Napoli. They got the 8 highest points that season, only behind six Champions League teams. Athletic Bilbao who knocked them out of Champions League ended up in 32. place. 11 points behind Napoli. With Lazios current ranking they would not be highly seeded and could end up with nothing in the Champions League.

So is there a chance only the forth place in England this season doesn't get Champions League?

No, at the end of this season the points will only tell you how the qualification works next season. If Italy passes England this year, the first year with three English Champions League teams will be 2017/18.

Still, the point difference seems decent enough. England should survive this right?

Most likely. However, next year will be even harder. I mentioned that the difference was 3.103. However, when the next season starts the points from 2011/12 will be wiped. This means 3,893 points lost for England over Italy. It essentially means that over a two year period England needs to outperform Italy.

With all the money in English football, it will only be a matter of time before they are back on top though? Right.

Perhaps. We can all speculate. The backlash of missing the forth Champions League place however, is potentially huge. This is where we go over to speculation, but at least two points seem logical to me.

-Players could find clubs like Arsenal/Liverpool less attractive when the chance of playing in the Champions League is smaller. - When Premier League is promoting itself as "the best in the world" they can say that and never talk about how the league is 15 points behind Spain. They have to talk about the fact that there is now one team less in the Champions League from England. As a PR move it is essentially a disaster and the current bizarre TV deal will not last for an eternity.

Yeah, talking of TV deal. Surely this will sort itself out with all the money?

One should think so. However, the money in the English league means a team would rather fight for an 11. place in the league than a semi final in the Europa League. The carrot of having a Champions League place for the winner is not AS important for Liverpool or Tottenham as it would be for Lazio or Fiorentina. There is also another important factor. This has all happened in a period where Juventus has been the only stable top club in Italy. This means that weaker teams get into Europe, and teams with fewer seeding points. Now Roma looks set to stay at the top. Inter looks very strong as well, and Milan has big plans. With the big Italian teams back on top it should be positive for the league in the long run.

This is stupid, where do I send death threats?

Please send all death threats to my private messages. I will not call the police.

This is amazing, would you consider marrying me or my sister or my daughter?

Send a picture of the relevant person and I will consider it.

I found an error in what you are writing.

Not surprising. I am not a professional FAQ writer. Errors, bad English and bad formating is all due to lack of professionalism.

Edit: Valuable point I forgot. There is a round of 32 in the Europa League. u/honey_pie wrote a good post about what that means here

https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comment ... _confused/

[Yorkyblue]

It's all about money. If England drop to 3 for Italy, both will end up with 4.

English football is the most popular in the world, TV rights prove that. They want English teams there for that reason. It will take a huge kind of collapse for them to take it off us in my opinion.

[Schlandi]

It's all about money. If England drop to 3 for Italy, both will end up with 4.

English football is the most popular in the world, TV rights prove that. They want English teams there for that reason. It will take a huge kind of collapse for them to take it off us in my opinion.

The PL clubs have the most money available by distance for ages but your clubs still managed to f**k up regulary.
Who the f**k cares if your league is more popular btw ?
It's about results in european competitions and nothing else.

Coefficent for 2017/2018
1. 65.570 LaLiga
2. 52.927 Bundesliga +12.643
3. 50.409 PL + 2.518
-----------------------------
4. 50.248 SerieA + 0.161

[Yorkyblue]

It's all about money. If England drop to 3 for Italy, both will end up with 4.

English football is the most popular in the world, TV rights prove that. They want English teams there for that reason. It will take a huge kind of collapse for them to take it off us in my opinion.

The PL clubs have the most money available by distance for ages but your clubs still managed to f**k up regulary.
Who the f**k cares if your league is more popular btw ?
It's about results in european competitions and nothing else.

Coefficent for 2017/2018
1. 65.570 LaLiga
2. 52.927 Bundesliga +12.643
3. 50.409 PL + 2.518
-----------------------------
4. 50.248 SerieA + 0.161

People watching care?

Stop talking about other crap that has nothing to do with this. Talk about how English teams spend so much and fail in Europe to people who are talking about that.

It's about European football and nothing else? f**k me mate you have problems if you think football is so black and white. Guessing you're a Blatter fan?

[Schlandi]

It's all about money. If England drop to 3 for Italy, both will end up with 4.

English football is the most popular in the world, TV rights prove that. They want English teams there for that reason. It will take a huge kind of collapse for them to take it off us in my opinion.

The PL clubs have the most money available by distance for ages but your clubs still managed to f**k up regulary.
Who the f**k cares if your league is more popular btw ?
It's about results in european competitions and nothing else.

Coefficent for 2017/2018
1. 65.570 LaLiga
2. 52.927 Bundesliga +12.643
3. 50.409 PL + 2.518
-----------------------------
4. 50.248 SerieA + 0.161

People watching care?

Stop talking about other crap that has nothing to do with this. Talk about how English teams spend so much and fail in Europe to people who are talking about that.

It's about European football and nothing else? f**k me mate you have problems if you think football is so black and white. Guessing you're a Blatter fan?

LOL are you drunk ?
The UEFA coefficent is about results and nothing else how difficult is that to understand ?
You started talking about money and as a ManCity fan you are much closer to Blatter as me, myself and I and no you won't get four Spots on the 4th place cause you are the "mighty Premier League" deal with it.

[Yorkyblue]

It's all about money. If England drop to 3 for Italy, both will end up with 4.

English football is the most popular in the world, TV rights prove that. They want English teams there for that reason. It will take a huge kind of collapse for them to take it off us in my opinion.

The PL clubs have the most money available by distance for ages but your clubs still managed to f**k up regulary.
Who the f**k cares if your league is more popular btw ?
It's about results in european competitions and nothing else.

Coefficent for 2017/2018
1. 65.570 LaLiga
2. 52.927 Bundesliga +12.643
3. 50.409 PL + 2.518
-----------------------------
4. 50.248 SerieA + 0.161

People watching care?

Stop talking about other crap that has nothing to do with this. Talk about how English teams spend so much and fail in Europe to people who are talking about that.

It's about European football and nothing else? f**k me mate you have problems if you think football is so black and white. Guessing you're a Blatter fan?

LOL are you drunk ?
The UEFA coefficent is about results and nothing else how difficult is that to understand ?
You started talking about money and as a ManCity fan you are much closer to Blatter as me, myself and I and no you won't get four Spots on the 4th place cause you are the "mighty Premier League" deal with it.

I think there is a translation problem here cause you don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

[AAIRE99]

It's all about money. If England drop to 3 for Italy, both will end up with 4.

English football is the most popular in the world, TV rights prove that. They want English teams there for that reason. It will take a huge kind of collapse for them to take it off us in my opinion.

The PL clubs have the most money available by distance for ages but your clubs still managed to f**k up regulary.
Who the f**k cares if your league is more popular btw ?
It's about results in european competitions and nothing else.

Coefficent for 2017/2018
1. 65.570 LaLiga
2. 52.927 Bundesliga +12.643
3. 50.409 PL + 2.518
-----------------------------
4. 50.248 SerieA + 0.161

People watching care?

Stop talking about other crap that has nothing to do with this. Talk about how English teams spend so much and fail in Europe to people who are talking about that.

It's about European football and nothing else? f**k me mate you have problems if you think football is so black and white. Guessing you're a Blatter fan?

LOL are you drunk ?
The UEFA coefficent is about results and nothing else how difficult is that to understand ?
You started talking about money and as a ManCity fan you are much closer to Blatter as me, myself and I and no you won't get four Spots on the 4th place cause you are the "mighty Premier League" deal with it.

I think there is a translation problem here cause you don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

In fairness "German uses the "are you drunk" "lay off the heroin"" line(s) on a person from the british isles = conversation over mate.
Dont think you know what these means.

Just to remind you Yorky this is one of 2 idiots telling us all last season that English football is on the way out and the Bundy is on the way up. Ok lads, fair enough when in all reality the Bundy is the Premier League B Version.

[CukiZeGerman]

In all fairness, this is also the person that thinks that Adnan Januzaj is "one of the best players in the World".