The Run in and TOP 4

[Dejan]

Yes Starman. You are only explaining that it is mathematically possible.
We are talking about the chances of a team to win 9 or 10 in a row.. While this team barelly is able to win 2 in a row.
Its being delusional.

After Boxing Day we went on a run of 10 games, we Won 6, Drew 2 and Lost 2, not a million miles off what we needed to do to secure top 4. So I don't agree it was beyond the realms of very real possiblity, especially when you consider we brought in a top class CM in Partey and cover for ESR in Odegaard - and the quality of our performances had improved with the intro of ESR

I hear ya. However, that was our best run of the season and still nowhere near good enough to get top 4 now. And of these 10 games we have only played united and chelsea as top 8 teams. Our run of 10 games was now significantly more difficult imo. Additionally, we needed to win all 10 of them now to even make a slight chance.

Nihil chance of it happening. Hence why the 2 games after this made, we both screwed up.

Perhaps even more important, we do have one of the worst managers in the league and many players who are either shit or do not have the right mentality to make this happen

[jayramfootball]

Yes Starman. You are only explaining that it is mathematically possible.
We are talking about the chances of a team to win 9 or 10 in a row.. While this team barelly is able to win 2 in a row.
Its being delusional.

After Boxing Day we went on a run of 10 games, we Won 6, Drew 2 and Lost 2, not a million miles off what we needed to do to secure top 4. So I don't agree it was beyond the realms of very real possiblity, especially when you consider we brought in a top class CM in Partey and cover for ESR in Odegaard - and the quality of our performances had improved with the intro of ESR

I hear ya. However, that was our best run of the season and still nowhere near good enough to get top 4 now. And of these 10 games we have only played united and chelsea as top 8 teams. Our run of 10 games was now significantly more difficult imo. Additionally, we needed to win all 10 of them now to even make a slight chance.

Nihil chance of it happening. Hence why the 2 games after this made, we both screwed up.

Perhaps even more important, we do have one of the worst managers in the league and many players who are either shit or do not have the right mentality to make this happen

We didn't need to win all 10 - if we had of won all 10, though, it wouldn't mean a slight chance of being top 4, it would be a very high likelihood.
Bottom line is that with 10 games to go , making up 10 points is most certainly doable. Tough to achieve, but doable. Certainly not in the realms of 'delusion'.

[Power n Glory]

I don't think anyone is disputing the maths. It just comes back to faith in the squad and manager. I dont think anyone has any faith in this group of players or manager to pull this off. If they somehow pull it off then we probably all need to rethink our positions on the manager and players.

Not really. A team who is not good enough to regularly challenge for titles and top 4 is still capable of putting a run together.
Alas, we didn't turn up in the first half against West ham and the whole game against Liverpool.
That doesn't mean we were not capable of putting a run together and if we had, it would certainly not mean we'd have to pretend that Xhaka, for example, was good enough.

From what I've seen, the ongoing debate has been about whether the players are good enough to finish in the Top 4 this season.

[jayramfootball]

I don't think anyone is disputing the maths. It just comes back to faith in the squad and manager. I dont think anyone has any faith in this group of players or manager to pull this off. If they somehow pull it off then we probably all need to rethink our positions on the manager and players.

Not really. A team who is not good enough to regularly challenge for titles and top 4 is still capable of putting a run together.
Alas, we didn't turn up in the first half against West ham and the whole game against Liverpool.
That doesn't mean we were not capable of putting a run together and if we had, it would certainly not mean we'd have to pretend that Xhaka, for example, was good enough.

From what I've seen, the ongoing debate has been about whether the players are good enough to finish in the Top 4 this season.

No, the debate is whether it's possible these players could put a run of wins together and whether a season is 'over' if you find yourselves 10 points behind top 4 with 10 games to go.
The answer is yes and no, respectively.
Pulling a top 4 out of the hat with a possible but improbable run of wins has nothing to do with whether the players are good enough for this club overall to the extent we'd have to 'reconsider' the likes of Xhaka, Ceballos, Holding, Pepe, et al.

[Power n Glory]

I don't think anyone is disputing the maths. It just comes back to faith in the squad and manager. I dont think anyone has any faith in this group of players or manager to pull this off. If they somehow pull it off then we probably all need to rethink our positions on the manager and players.

Not really. A team who is not good enough to regularly challenge for titles and top 4 is still capable of putting a run together.
Alas, we didn't turn up in the first half against West ham and the whole game against Liverpool.
That doesn't mean we were not capable of putting a run together and if we had, it would certainly not mean we'd have to pretend that Xhaka, for example, was good enough.

From what I've seen, the ongoing debate has been about whether the players are good enough to finish in the Top 4 this season.

No, the debate is whether it's possible these players could put a run of wins together and whether a season is 'over' if you find yourselves 10 points behind top 4 with 10 games to go.
The answer is yes and no, respectively.
Pulling a top 4 out of the hat with a possible but improbable run of wins has nothing to do with whether the players are good enough for this club overall to the extent we'd have to 'reconsider' the likes of Xhaka, Ceballos, Holding, Pepe, et al.

The ongoing debate for this entire season and overall sentiment about this team and coach. I don't just mean in this one thread.

[jayramfootball]

I don't think anyone is disputing the maths. It just comes back to faith in the squad and manager. I dont think anyone has any faith in this group of players or manager to pull this off. If they somehow pull it off then we probably all need to rethink our positions on the manager and players.

Not really. A team who is not good enough to regularly challenge for titles and top 4 is still capable of putting a run together.
Alas, we didn't turn up in the first half against West ham and the whole game against Liverpool.
That doesn't mean we were not capable of putting a run together and if we had, it would certainly not mean we'd have to pretend that Xhaka, for example, was good enough.

From what I've seen, the ongoing debate has been about whether the players are good enough to finish in the Top 4 this season.

No, the debate is whether it's possible these players could put a run of wins together and whether a season is 'over' if you find yourselves 10 points behind top 4 with 10 games to go.
The answer is yes and no, respectively.
Pulling a top 4 out of the hat with a possible but improbable run of wins has nothing to do with whether the players are good enough for this club overall to the extent we'd have to 'reconsider' the likes of Xhaka, Ceballos, Holding, Pepe, et al.

The ongoing debate for this entire season and overall sentiment about this team and coach. I don't just mean in this one thread.

Is there a debate?
Does anyone think overall that this team is good enough???

[Power n Glory]

I don't think anyone is disputing the maths. It just comes back to faith in the squad and manager. I dont think anyone has any faith in this group of players or manager to pull this off. If they somehow pull it off then we probably all need to rethink our positions on the manager and players.

Not really. A team who is not good enough to regularly challenge for titles and top 4 is still capable of putting a run together.
Alas, we didn't turn up in the first half against West ham and the whole game against Liverpool.
That doesn't mean we were not capable of putting a run together and if we had, it would certainly not mean we'd have to pretend that Xhaka, for example, was good enough.

From what I've seen, the ongoing debate has been about whether the players are good enough to finish in the Top 4 this season.

No, the debate is whether it's possible these players could put a run of wins together and whether a season is 'over' if you find yourselves 10 points behind top 4 with 10 games to go.
The answer is yes and no, respectively.
Pulling a top 4 out of the hat with a possible but improbable run of wins has nothing to do with whether the players are good enough for this club overall to the extent we'd have to 'reconsider' the likes of Xhaka, Ceballos, Holding, Pepe, et al.

The ongoing debate for this entire season and overall sentiment about this team and coach. I don't just mean in this one thread.

Is there a debate?
Does anyone think overall that this team is good enough???

Appears so if you say we're still in with a shot for Top 4.

[jayramfootball]

I don't think anyone is disputing the maths. It just comes back to faith in the squad and manager. I dont think anyone has any faith in this group of players or manager to pull this off. If they somehow pull it off then we probably all need to rethink our positions on the manager and players.

Not really. A team who is not good enough to regularly challenge for titles and top 4 is still capable of putting a run together.
Alas, we didn't turn up in the first half against West ham and the whole game against Liverpool.
That doesn't mean we were not capable of putting a run together and if we had, it would certainly not mean we'd have to pretend that Xhaka, for example, was good enough.

From what I've seen, the ongoing debate has been about whether the players are good enough to finish in the Top 4 this season.

No, the debate is whether it's possible these players could put a run of wins together and whether a season is 'over' if you find yourselves 10 points behind top 4 with 10 games to go.
The answer is yes and no, respectively.
Pulling a top 4 out of the hat with a possible but improbable run of wins has nothing to do with whether the players are good enough for this club overall to the extent we'd have to 'reconsider' the likes of Xhaka, Ceballos, Holding, Pepe, et al.

The ongoing debate for this entire season and overall sentiment about this team and coach. I don't just mean in this one thread.

Is there a debate?
Does anyone think overall that this team is good enough???

Appears so if you say we're still in with a shot for Top 4.

How does stringing an improbable run together to scrape 4th place against the odds equate to saying the players overall are good enough for this club?
You are not making any sense.

Are they good enough to occasionally scrape a top 4 place? Yeah - so are the players from a lot of teams, like West Ham.
That is not what we're after as fans so I have no idea where you are going with this.

[Power n Glory]

Like wise.

I see below comparisons from you and wonder where you're going with this.

I once watched an Arsenal team go on a run of 1o straight wins in which they made up 12 points on Manchester Utd and ended up winning the league.
Might have been before your time.

Being the underdog is one thing but can you say the 97/98 team weren't good enough for Arsenal? That's a different argument anyway. I originally said the debate was about this team being good enough to finish 4th, not whether or not they're good enough for Arsenal because as a club we should be aiming higher than 4th anyway. League titles and trophies should be the priority. Would be great to put together some wins in the league and finish top 4 but we have a better shot at winning the Europa league.

[Dejan]

Yes Starman. You are only explaining that it is mathematically possible.
We are talking about the chances of a team to win 9 or 10 in a row.. While this team barelly is able to win 2 in a row.
Its being delusional.

After Boxing Day we went on a run of 10 games, we Won 6, Drew 2 and Lost 2, not a million miles off what we needed to do to secure top 4. So I don't agree it was beyond the realms of very real possiblity, especially when you consider we brought in a top class CM in Partey and cover for ESR in Odegaard - and the quality of our performances had improved with the intro of ESR

I hear ya. However, that was our best run of the season and still nowhere near good enough to get top 4 now. And of these 10 games we have only played united and chelsea as top 8 teams. Our run of 10 games was now significantly more difficult imo. Additionally, we needed to win all 10 of them now to even make a slight chance.

Nihil chance of it happening. Hence why the 2 games after this made, we both screwed up.

Perhaps even more important, we do have one of the worst managers in the league and many players who are either shit or do not have the right mentality to make this happen

We didn't need to win all 10 - if we had of won all 10, though, it wouldn't mean a slight chance of being top 4, it would be a very high likelihood.
Bottom line is that with 10 games to go , making up 10 points is most certainly doable. Tough to achieve, but doable. Certainly not in the realms of 'delusion'.

Guess we just have to agree to disagree

[starmandb]

Well we will see won’t we
When this thread was made we could still get 71 points and it looked like about 67 points would be needed for top 4
We can look at the end and see if that works out to have been true

[Angelito]

It was a mathematical possibility, but it was never a realistic possibility.

Throughout the season, we have had winless runs punctuated by some wins here and there. Look at the present. We have conceded 7 goals in the past three games and have lost 2/3 games, whilst dropping points in all three games since we beat Spurs.

This is typical for a mid-table side.

If we had a semi-decent manager who was merely unlucky, or got us into such runs due to various factors, then fair enough.

Arteta has proven over and over again that he's a classic mid-table manager for now. We've lost 12 and won 12. We've dropped points in 18 games. That's 60% of the games that we have dropped points in.

At this rate, we're heading towards a points tally of 54 points this season. That's lower than last season. It's the lowest since 94/95.

At the start of next season, it's mathematically possible for us to become Invincibles again with 114 points. That doesn't mean we will.

We won't achieve anything if we're so Goddamn dependent on ESR and Saka every f'kin game.

[DiamondGooner]

If we start viewing everything through a mathematical possibility then you can argue that we should of come 1st every year since the start of the Premiership ............ I mean, its mathematically possible after all.

But this is why stats and numbers are BS to a certain extent.

Form and realistic chances based on the human element / equation are why we know what is likely to happen despite the numbers.

For us to hit top 4 it would take us basically to win every game left in the season, now we can observe our form, consistency and cohesion of this squad to all know that's its not fkin happening if you want to put it in laymans terms.

[Highbury Hillbilly]

For the foreseeable future, Top 4 is only possible if a T4 incumbent has an awful season and we take advantage early on. This year that team is Liverpool. Chelsea have also struggled, but w/ Tuchel's recently ended unbeaten run, they probably have enough in the tank to get over the line.

West Ham has that final 4th place filled for now, because they performed at a consistent level for most of the campaign. They haven't been remarkable though, which is why I think they'll eventually finish 5th or 6th.

[jayramfootball]

Like wise.

I see below comparisons from you and wonder where you're going with this.

I once watched an Arsenal team go on a run of 1o straight wins in which they made up 12 points on Manchester Utd and ended up winning the league.
Might have been before your time.

Being the underdog is one thing but can you say the 97/98 team weren't good enough for Arsenal? That's a different argument anyway. I originally said the debate was about this team being good enough to finish 4th, not whether or not they're good enough for Arsenal because as a club we should be aiming higher than 4th anyway. League titles and trophies should be the priority. Would be great to put together some wins in the league and finish top 4 but we have a better shot at winning the Europa league.

You've lost the plot.
Who said the 97/98 team we're not good enough?

It was you who introduced your strage angle, completely unrelated to the thread.

As fur the Europa , yes of course we have a better shot at winning it. That's not the debate either. Get some sleep.