theHotHead wrote:jayramfootball wrote:theHotHead wrote:jayramfootball wrote:theHotHead wrote:In Jesus' best goal scoring chance season for us he had a shot conversion rate of 14% in the league.
In Havertz last 2 seasons for us he has had shot conversion rates of 17% this season and 18% last season.
In his last season for Spurs Harry Kane had a shot conversion rate of 23%
In Nketiah's best season for us (2021/22 when he scored 5 league goals in 21 appearances) his shot conversion rate was 17%
Comparisons? Salah's shot conversion rate was 22% this season Haaland this season is 20%, last season he was 22%, season before he was 29% !!!
I think I have made my point conclusively. Jesus and Havertz' don't score enough from their chances. We need a striker whose conversion rate is 20% minimum.
Shot conversion is skewed a lot by the quality of the chance.
Put it this way. If you shoot from range a lot your conversion will be lower.
Shot conversion numbers also include penalties by the way. Another skew. Some players take them, some don’t.
Chris Woods shot conversion rate this year is 31%.
Is he the answer then?
Should Liverpool trade in Salah for him, City trade in Haaland to try to get him? His shot conversion is way better than both. They win more games with Chris Woods by your logic because he’d be better in the vital moments.
Nice try. The problem with your example though is we have enough data on Chris Wood. He does have very good conversion rates, problem is, his numbers are poor, he doesnt score enough. This season is an outlier rather than the norm.
His limited ability on the ball as well prevent him from ever being a target of the big clubs
So now we're adding ability on the ball to equation and we now also need to look at more seasons.
In truth there are several more factors that make up a good fit for any player in any team.
The use of shot conversion is not a metric to be used singularly because of the reasons I said - it depends on which type of shots you have.
If an average player has 20 shots all season and 10 of them were penalties, and he missed the other 10 chances and missed 2 of the pens also - he'd have a conversion rate of 40%.
Take Salah as an example this year - shot conversion rate of 22% overall
Take out the penalties and it's 16%
3.23 shots per 90 - 0.52 non penalty goals per 90 - as per FBREF
Havertz this year
2.52 shots per 90 - 0.44 non penalty goals per 90 - as per FBREF
Conversion rate of 17.4% , 1.4% ahead of Salah.
I can tell you why - it's not because Havertz is a better finisher, it's because his chances where he even tries to shoot are far more skewed towards close range efforts, whereas Salah shoots far more and takes shots from more difficult situations.
By the way , Chris Woods has a 27% conversion rate of non penalty shots and it's not just one season - last year it was 29%.
If you just took those numbers he'd be the worlds best finisher.
He's not- it's just the way Forest play and the vast chunk of his goals being close range headers.
If you were to argue that our players should be shooting more instead of trying to be sure - or being afraid to shoot - and we focused on that as a team in terms of training and technique, I'd be with you. But basing signing needs and decisions on a shot conversion metric at the macro level would be madness.
Ok, let me put an end to this argument. Even if all you say is correct, there is a reason why:
Havertz averages a goal every 3.65 games in his Premier League career. For Arsenal its down to a goal every 2.80 games.
Salah averages a goal every 1.62 games in his entire Premier League career.
Haaland averages a goal every 1.14 games in his entire Premier League career.
Jesus averages a goal every 3.01 games in his entire Premier League career.
Chris Wood averages a goal every 2.94 games in his entire Premier League career.
Harry Kane averaged a goal every 1.50 games in his entire Premier League career.
However you want to look at it Jay a goal every 3 games is the strike rate of a bang average striker which are the stats of Chris Wood, Havertz and Jesus. Bang average bro. Its widely accepted that a good strike rate is a goal every 2 games, anything more than that is top level. I want the player that is going to score me lots of goals and has the stats to prove that he will. I don';t care about the difficulty of the chances, I don't care how they go in, I want a player that you can bank on when he gets the chance he is going to put it away at least once every 2 games.
You pivoted to a different stat.
Individuals games per goal is not important.
Team goals per game is and whether that's more than the opposition on a game to game basis.
I couldn't give a f**k if we win 3-0 and with 3 goalscorers, and a rival draws 3-3 and their striker scores a hat trick.
You seem to be chasing a unicorn of a striker who is going to always score when it matters,
Doesn't exist - never has.
Every striker in history has missed far more chances than they scored.
For sure, some strikers are better than others - but goal scoring has not been a problem for us in the last couple of years and this year our top 4 forwards were out for extended periods and all at the same time, hence we didn't score as many. Had nothing to do with needing a strike beyond the unmanageable injury crisis.
I think next season we actually do, because the injuries to Jesus are too much to risk again.