by theHotHead » Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:19 am
Lets look at Auba this season, in league games he played:
Vs Chelsea (0-2), Arsenal xG 0.63
Vs Man C (0-5), Arsenal xG 0.12
Vs Norwich (1-0), Arsenal xG 2.69 (Auba scored)
Vs Burnley (0-1), Arsenal xG 1.1
Vs Spurs (3-1), Arsenal xG 1.44 (Auba scored)
Vs Brighton (0-0), Arsenal xG 0.36
Vs C Palace (2-2), Arsenal xG 1.74 (Auba scored)
Vs A Villa (3-1), Arsenal xG 3.5 (Auba scored + assist)
Vs Leicester (0-2), Arsenal xG 1.1
Vs Watford (1-0), Arsenal xG 1.49
Vs Liverpool (0-5), Arsenal xG 0.27
Vs Newcastle (2-0), Arsenal xG 2.84
Vs Man U (3-2), Arsenal xG 1.17.
Auba has an overall xG of 6.81, he has scored 4 goals. Now that I have given you the stats, let me give you my analysis, we do not create enough good chances. If we are creating good quality chances I would expect our xG to be higher than the goals we score but in 4 of the games above that Auba played in our xG is lower than the number of goals we scored.
There are 4 games where we have an xG lower than 1, we didnt score in any of those games, Auba himself would be reasonably expected to score 3 more goals than he has, given his xG is 6.81 and he has scored 4 goals. The point is though in all but 1 of our highest xG games Auba played in, he scored goals in each of them.
The smoking gun is not Auba, its the attacking system deployed by Arteta thats the problem. We are creatively wank.