Thank you, Laca: Lacazette set to leave Arsenal

[jayramfootball]

Ok I get what both of you are saying. I would disagree with Jay inasmuch as I think the numbers Vardy and Auba post take them into the elite bracket, the consistency (this season not so). But both are top level strikers that I would put in the elite level. Above them you have the likes of Kane, then above Kane you have Lewandowski, Neymar and Mbappe. Above them you have Neymar and then Cristiano and Lionel. What I have shown are levels of eliteness though.

Where I agree with Jay is the limited nature of their games, clearly enough for Jay to not put the 2 of them in the elite level and I can't argue with that. Shut off Vardy's supply and he is dead, shut of Auba's supply and he is worse than dead.

If you shut off the supply to Neymar, Mbappe and Messi they drop deep and murder you.

You kind of hit the nail on the head on what I was talking about with your comment about 'levels' of eliteness.
Elite is elite - it's the best of the best. Worldwide it's a handful of players in my view.
Below that you have some very good and good players but I can't see the point of categorising players in levels of eliteness. It's like dishing out participation trophies.

[swipe right]

Ok I get what both of you are saying. I would disagree with Jay inasmuch as I think the numbers Vardy and Auba post take them into the elite bracket, the consistency (this season not so). But both are top level strikers that I would put in the elite level. Above them you have the likes of Kane, then above Kane you have Lewandowski, Neymar and Mbappe. Above them you have Neymar and then Cristiano and Lionel. What I have shown are levels of eliteness though.

Where I agree with Jay is the limited nature of their games, clearly enough for Jay to not put the 2 of them in the elite level and I can't argue with that. Shut off Vardy's supply and he is dead, shut of Auba's supply and he is worse than dead.

If you shut off the supply to Neymar, Mbappe and Messi they drop deep and murder you.

You kind of hit the nail on the head on what I was talking about with your comment about 'levels' of eliteness.
Elite is elite - it's the best of the best. Worldwide it's a handful of players in my view.
Below that you have some very good and good players but I can't see the point of categorising players in levels of eliteness. It's like dishing out participation trophies.

Would you not consider Rudd van Nistelrooy to have been an elite striker? What about Aguero? Auba’s goals per minute absolutely make him an elite striker. There is no question about it. Lacazette is simply not in the same category. It’s madness to not distinguish between the two.

[jayramfootball]

Ok I get what both of you are saying. I would disagree with Jay inasmuch as I think the numbers Vardy and Auba post take them into the elite bracket, the consistency (this season not so). But both are top level strikers that I would put in the elite level. Above them you have the likes of Kane, then above Kane you have Lewandowski, Neymar and Mbappe. Above them you have Neymar and then Cristiano and Lionel. What I have shown are levels of eliteness though.

Where I agree with Jay is the limited nature of their games, clearly enough for Jay to not put the 2 of them in the elite level and I can't argue with that. Shut off Vardy's supply and he is dead, shut of Auba's supply and he is worse than dead.

If you shut off the supply to Neymar, Mbappe and Messi they drop deep and murder you.

You kind of hit the nail on the head on what I was talking about with your comment about 'levels' of eliteness.
Elite is elite - it's the best of the best. Worldwide it's a handful of players in my view.
Below that you have some very good and good players but I can't see the point of categorising players in levels of eliteness. It's like dishing out participation trophies.

Would you not consider Rudd van Nistelrooy to have been an elite striker? What about Aguero? Auba’s goals per minute absolutely make him an elite striker. There is no question about it. Lacazette is simply not in the same category. It’s madness to not distinguish between the two.

Yes on Aguero a few seasons back - not anymore.
Yes on Van Nistelrooy
Yes on other forwards who were not necessarily top goal scorers - like Dennis Bergkamp.

Auba's goals per minute is actually trailing off and has been since his second season in the PL.
Its over 200 minutes per goal this season.
Right now he's not a long way ahead of Olivier Giroud in his PL career- in fact based on minutes it's now less than 3 goals a season difference. Couple that with Giroud being a better player in other areas of the game, if you class Auba as elite then you have to class Giroud as elite level. Obviously not.

Auba has nothing else to his game and to put it context in his PL career he is averaging LESS than 20 goals a season (including adjusting for his half season and the minutes he's played). That is not elite.

Here's a comparison between Giroud and Auba
Auba's decline in productivity didn't start just this year.
He's been declining since his first season.



Career-wise for Arsenal he's on a level with Giroud, but Giroud is a better all-round footballer.
We'll never know what Auba at his best, which I believe were his last 3 years at Dortmund and his first half-season at Arsenal, would have achieved in the PL. PL and Bundesliga are very different. But right now, to call Auba elite is simply inaccurate.

[swipe right]

I just find this argument nonsensical. We have a guy who has been and continues to be a prolific goal scorer. He’s stuck with a novice manager who can’t seem to build an attacking mentality. And a team bereft of any kind of creativity. Rather than fixing the problems, we want to get rid of the one guy who is confident scoring goals.

[jayramfootball]

I just find this argument nonsensical. We have a guy who has been and continues to be a prolific goal scorer. He’s stuck with a novice manager who can’t seem to build an attacking mentality. And a team bereft of any kind of creativity. Rather than fixing the problems, we want to get rid of the one guy who is confident scoring goals.

Yeah, I have heard all the excuses a million times. It's the same manager as last year and the stats show we've been more creative this year than last. Lacazette is having his best season.

Auba has scored 9 PL goals this year and as I showed you his record is now only slightly better than Girouds in terms of goals per minute and when you add in assists Giroud probably has the edge.

An average of less than 20 PL goals a season is not prolific either. Not bad but in no way elite.
Some fans got over excited about a mins per goal number over a very short time period after he joined probably at his peak - and overlooked his generally poor play in every other area.
mins per goal is now tailing off for Auba. I suspect he'll end his Arsenal career with a worse mins per goal rate than Giroud.

[Santi]

Auba would’ve had 18 and 20 in his first 2 seasons without the pens btw. At some point I will go back and look at old top scorers to see the averages without pens as well since that really shows the quality of a player.

Vardy and Kane also score lots of them so no problem including them when comparing to those guys but in terms of whether he’s elite I’d rather look at Auba’s non penalty goals vs Shearer/Henry/Rooney/Aguero non penalty goals. I think we’ll find what Jay has said about the overall drop in elite strikers despite more total goals on average across the league.

[jayramfootball]

Auba would’ve had 18 and 20 in his first 2 seasons without the pens btw. At some point I will go back and look at old top scorers to see the averages without pens as well since that really shows the quality of a player.

Vardy and Kane also score lots of them so no problem including them when comparing to those guys but in terms of whether he’s elite I’d rather look at Auba’s non penalty goals vs Shearer/Henry/Rooney/Aguero non penalty goals. I think we’ll find what Jay has said about the overall drop in elite strikers despite more total goals on average across the league.

In the 28 seasons of the PL, Auba's tally of 22 would have won the golden boot just 7 times.
There have been 10 occasions that strikers have busted the 30 number.
Anything over 25 is a really great season and players that reached 30, that's where you look at elite level.
22 is still very good, of course., with penalties or not, it's just not great.

There was a time, for example, when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbank put back to back seasons together of 23 goals - more than Auba. He actually scored 80 goals over 4 seasons and won the golden boot twice. Then he tailed off, just like we are seeing with Auba. I don't see many people remember JFH as an elite all-time great.

With Auba it's just a simple, and common, case of fans overrating their own players.
There are few that are really at the level that some fans like to make players out to be... the likes of Henry, Bergkamp, Vieira, Adams, Seaman, Pires.. These are the real elite all-time great players over the PL era.

[Marsbar100]

Auba would’ve had 18 and 20 in his first 2 seasons without the pens btw. At some point I will go back and look at old top scorers to see the averages without pens as well since that really shows the quality of a player.

Vardy and Kane also score lots of them so no problem including them when comparing to those guys but in terms of whether he’s elite I’d rather look at Auba’s non penalty goals vs Shearer/Henry/Rooney/Aguero non penalty goals. I think we’ll find what Jay has said about the overall drop in elite strikers despite more total goals on average across the league.

In the 28 seasons of the PL, Auba's tally of 22 would have won the golden boot just 7 times.
There have been 10 occasions that strikers have busted the 30 number.
Anything over 25 is a really great season and players that reached 30, that's where you look at elite level.
22 is still very good, of course., with penalties or not, it's just not great.

There was a time, for example, when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbank put back to back seasons together of 23 goals - more than Auba. He actually scored 80 goals over 4 seasons and won the golden boot twice. Then he tailed off, just like we are seeing with Auba. I don't see many people remember JFH as an elite all-time great.

With Auba it's just a simple, and common, case of fans over rating their own players.

The prem is a lot harder now I think 22 on multiple occasions is very good

[jayramfootball]

Auba would’ve had 18 and 20 in his first 2 seasons without the pens btw. At some point I will go back and look at old top scorers to see the averages without pens as well since that really shows the quality of a player.

Vardy and Kane also score lots of them so no problem including them when comparing to those guys but in terms of whether he’s elite I’d rather look at Auba’s non penalty goals vs Shearer/Henry/Rooney/Aguero non penalty goals. I think we’ll find what Jay has said about the overall drop in elite strikers despite more total goals on average across the league.

In the 28 seasons of the PL, Auba's tally of 22 would have won the golden boot just 7 times.
There have been 10 occasions that strikers have busted the 30 number.
Anything over 25 is a really great season and players that reached 30, that's where you look at elite level.
22 is still very good, of course., with penalties or not, it's just not great.

There was a time, for example, when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbank put back to back seasons together of 23 goals - more than Auba. He actually scored 80 goals over 4 seasons and won the golden boot twice. Then he tailed off, just like we are seeing with Auba. I don't see many people remember JFH as an elite all-time great.

With Auba it's just a simple, and common, case of fans over rating their own players.

The prem is a lot harder now I think 22 on multiple occasions is very good

No, it isn't a lot harder. If anything it's become a little easier.
The trend in golden boot winners goal haul is not in decline. It's just that in some seasons a truly great striker doesn't emerge for that year.
For example, Salah scored over 30 just 3 seasons ago.

Here are the golden boot totals by year. There is nothing to show it's getting harder.


Here are the avg goals per game by year. It's growing slightly. The season where Auba got 22 goals and won the golden boot it was the highest-scoring season in PL history. About the only thing you can say is the first 3 seasons of the PL there were 22 teams, not 20, so more matches, but we've seen plenty of 25+ and 30+ goals for the golden boot winner since then.



I just don't know why some fans seem to pretend that Auba's seasons have been somehow earth-shattering. They haven't. It's fandom and nothing more. I think social media plays a big part and no other player milks social media as much as Auba. The twittershpere is always alive with meaningless stats relating to him. Like I said, if Auba is an elite level in Premier League history and an all-time great then so is Jimmy Floyd Hasselbank. He won the golden boot twice, not once, and scored 80 PL goals over 4 seasons. The reality is that JFH was a good striker, maybe very good, but not great. Just like Auba.

Auba needed to back up his couple of good seasons, a very short time span, with an improvement to 25 or 30 goals per season over the term of his big contract. If he had of done THAT, I'd be calling him great too, but he hasn't been able to, at least so far. Maybe he'll bang in 30 for the next two seasons and go out with a bang... can't see it happening, though.

[Angelito]

We're in a tricky situation again. Saka, ESR, Martinelli, and Pepe seem to gel with Laca up top. Auba has been better for us on the left, but even as a CF, he's not someone known for his link-up play.

We have yet another decision to make. If we can offload Willian, I wouldn't mind extending Laca's contract. Unless we opt for Martinelli as a false 9 next season, with Pepe on the left, Saka on the right, and ESR just behind them. I'm really unsure how Auba would function with those players. Link-up play is his worst attribute and modern day CFs need to be good at it.

I really don't know.

Willian is the bottleneck. I would be glad if we could offload him in the summer but with his wages, I can't see how that's possible.

Signing him last summer didn't make sense. It seems even more stupid right now.

[jayramfootball]

We're in a tricky situation again. Saka, ESR, Martinelli, and Pepe seem to gel with Laca up top. Auba has been better for us on the left, but even as a CF, he's not someone known for his link-up play.

We have yet another decision to make. If we can offload Willian, I wouldn't mind extending Laca's contract. Unless we opt for Martinelli as a false 9 next season, with Pepe on the left, Saka on the right, and ESR just behind them. I'm really unsure how Auba would function with those players. Link-up play is his worst attribute and modern day CFs need to be good at it.

I really don't know.

Willian is the bottleneck. I would be glad if we could offload him in the summer but with his wages, I can't see how that's possible.

Signing him last summer didn't make sense. It seems even more stupid right now.

Given it's unlikely we can offload Auba we have to find use for him.
I actually think he would make a great impact sub. 15-30 minutes at full tilt making runs and moving defenders around.
Laca is likely to leave unfortunately as he'll get a 3-year deal somewhere - I just hope we don't make the same mistake we did with Auba and Willian.
Think we need to replace Laca with a new CF - Edouard would be my choice. He has the physical presence and close control to hold it and bring others in and with Saka, ESR and Martinelli playing off him, it could work really well.

[Dejan]

We're in a tricky situation again. Saka, ESR, Martinelli, and Pepe seem to gel with Laca up top. Auba has been better for us on the left, but even as a CF, he's not someone known for his link-up play.

We have yet another decision to make. If we can offload Willian, I wouldn't mind extending Laca's contract. Unless we opt for Martinelli as a false 9 next season, with Pepe on the left, Saka on the right, and ESR just behind them. I'm really unsure how Auba would function with those players. Link-up play is his worst attribute and modern day CFs need to be good at it.

I really don't know.

Willian is the bottleneck. I would be glad if we could offload him in the summer but with his wages, I can't see how that's possible.

Signing him last summer didn't make sense. It seems even more stupid right now.

Extending laca's contract? wait I am confused
Didnt LAca already state he is leaving?

[Angelito]

We're in a tricky situation again. Saka, ESR, Martinelli, and Pepe seem to gel with Laca up top. Auba has been better for us on the left, but even as a CF, he's not someone known for his link-up play.

We have yet another decision to make. If we can offload Willian, I wouldn't mind extending Laca's contract. Unless we opt for Martinelli as a false 9 next season, with Pepe on the left, Saka on the right, and ESR just behind them. I'm really unsure how Auba would function with those players. Link-up play is his worst attribute and modern day CFs need to be good at it.

I really don't know.

Willian is the bottleneck. I would be glad if we could offload him in the summer but with his wages, I can't see how that's possible.

Signing him last summer didn't make sense. It seems even more stupid right now.

Extending laca's contract? wait I am confused
Didnt LAca already state he is leaving?

I don't think he's said that he wants to leave.

I remember reading an article where he said that he's not concerned if Arsenal offer him a new contract, or not.

[thebigbangtheo]

Each to their own, but for me, ahead of kick-off when Laca strode forward with a purpose to within a couple of metres or so of the Slavia players stood in a line arms around shoulders as he took a knee and raised the fist, not only made me well up with pride as he positively glowered at them with disdain and contempt, but resulted in a double edged effect.

Firstly, I believe it helped galvanise the rest of the team with a determination to complete the mission with no room for error or intension to take any prisoners.

Secondly, I am convinced it also ended up having a dibilitating effect on the black players within the Slavia team in particular to effectively render them anonymous with head f**k whilst all the Slavia players appeared as though their conscience had been pricked following their rather crass attempt at solidarity with disgraced team mate Andre Kudele in support of his denial of racist abuse being only bettered by Trump's claim to have won the presidential election.

[theHotHead]

That Giroud/Auba chart is mad, showing Giroud's increase in productivity at Arsenal and Auba's decline. Alarming too