Creativity & Chance Conversion

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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby theHotHead » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:29 am

jayramfootball wrote:
Power n Glory wrote:
My assessment of Arteta will remain largely based on the teams he picks. This big debate about tactics makes me chuckle a bit - as if the fans have some great insight into what tactics we're even adopting, never mind those we should adopt. Generally, they don't. It's just a generic talking point. We lost....tic tacs. Does my head in.


Is it possible that you're projecting your own difficulties understanding the tactical side of the game and maybe why you tend to resort to this pure data approach of numbers and figures?


No.
I am 100 percent certain that very very few people here have the first f***ing clue about the tactical side of the game. You included. I am sure you've played a lot of football manager, though... And FIFA.

Jay, I have never been a coach, I have never professed to be some tactical don. The idea that you have to be an expert to have a valid opinon is nonsense. I played football to semi pro, I know loads of pro footballers, my knowledge of footie is from the playing side. You don't need to be the Albert Einstein of football to know you don't play with wingers and flood the bvox with crosses when you don't have a failry dominant CF to convert the crosses. You also don't need to be a tactical genius to know if the team are creating shit chances - the tactics are wrong ! Arteta has demonstrated that his attacking tactics are shockingly bad
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:23 pm

Against Burnley today

13 shots
4 with an xG >=0.1 - again we missed them all.
9 with an xG <0.1 ... but we got our first goal from a low percentage chance - Odegaards free kick.

Pepe (2), ESR(2) missed our decent chances created.

The good news is that but for a slew of poor final balls we'd have created several more big chances - the transition from midfield into the attacking third was very good , but we just lacked the sharpness we need with that final ball. That will come.

More good news is that our defence did not concede a single chance with an xG of >=0.1 ... that's the first time this season.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby billie86 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:42 pm

jayramfootball wrote:Against Burnley today

13 shots
4 with an xG >=0.1 - again we missed them all.
9 with an xG <0.1 ... but we got our first goal from a low percentage chance - Odegaards free kick.

Pepe (2), ESR(2) missed our decent chances created.

The good news is that but for a slew of poor final balls we'd have created several more big chances - the transition from midfield into the attacking third was very good , but we just lacked the sharpness we need with that final ball. That will come.

More good news is that our defence did not concede a single chance with an xG of >=0.1 ... that's the first time this season.


I was watching the game and noticed so many underhit passes when we were breaking away and assumed we had just been very off with out passing but after listening to Ben whites interview it looks like that was a tactic by Burnley to dry the pitch out so the ball would hold up, ideal for them as it slows down our counter attacking play and means that their long balls will hold up more, must have been a nightmare to play on so fair play to the lads for grinding out a win. I have seen us play so many games like today recently were we have buckled so it was nice to see some resolute defending for a change.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby theHotHead » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:34 am

I watched MoTD and the way Jay was talking in the matchday thread I thought ESR and others missed sitters. The quality of the chances was mediocre at best, in fact, in real time i didn't expect any of the efforts to go in, there was not a single clean cut chance made. You cannot fault the strikers for not taking opportunities because the opportunities created were simply ok, none of them were good chances.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:50 am

theHotHead wrote:I watched MoTD and the way Jay was talking in the matchday thread I thought ESR and others missed sitters. The quality of the chances was mediocre at best, in fact, in real time i didn't expect any of the efforts to go in, there was not a single clean cut chance made. You cannot fault the strikers for not taking opportunities because the opportunities created were simply ok, none of them were good chances.


They were decent chances.

You can always blame players for missing chances. They missed them. If they keep missing chances then they should lose their place in the side.

If players only scored the great chances where it's harder to miss than score most games would end 0-0.

You've lost perspective hothead. No team anywhere creates loads of chances that are tap ins or easy to convert. The majority of chances created are not as good as the two ESR missed, for example, against Burnley... Or the one he missed against Norwich. He and Pepe are the two biggest culprits right now for poor finishing. Both need to improve.
Last edited by jayramfootball on Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby Salibatelli » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:56 am

I wouldn’t call them decent chances to be honest, they were half chances.

Half chances aren’t easy and are often missed, you make out like we’re missing easy chances, we’re not, no blame on the players for me.

Lack of creativity is our issue, on top of that we create so few decent chances that when they do arrive there’s more pressure on them which of course makes players more likely to miss.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby theHotHead » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:11 am

jayramfootball wrote:
theHotHead wrote:I watched MoTD and the way Jay was talking in the matchday thread I thought ESR and others missed sitters. The quality of the chances was mediocre at best, in fact, in real time i didn't expect any of the efforts to go in, there was not a single clean cut chance made. You cannot fault the strikers for not taking opportunities because the opportunities created were simply ok, none of them were good chances.


They were decent chances.

You can always blame players for missing chances. They missed them. If they keep missing chances then they should lose their place in the side.

If players only scored the great chances where it's harder to miss than score most games would end 0-0.

You've lost perspective hothead. No team anywhere creates loads of chances that are tap ins or easy to convert. The majority of chances created are not as good as the two ESR missed, for example, against Burnley... Or the one he missed against Norwich. He and Pepe are the two biggest culprits right now for poor finishing. Both need to improve.

Jay, I will simplify my view, none of the chances were "should have scored" chances, those type of chances are not tap ins or open goals, they are good chances that favour the striker. The chances we created were "should be hitting the target there" chances. You don't expect to score "should be hitting the target" chances but at the very least you expect to work the keeper.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:15 am

Özim wrote:I wouldn’t call them decent chances to be honest, they were half chances.

Half chances aren’t easy and are often missed, you make out like we’re missing easy chances, we’re not, no blame on the players for me.

Lack of creativity is our issue, on top of that we create so few decent chances that when they do arrive there’s more pressure on them which of course makes players more likely to miss.


It is correct to say we are not creating good chances compared to the top teams. We are middle of the pack on that score and nearer the top teams in terms of total chances.

However the bigger issue is finishing.
We are clearly struggling on that score compared to other teams.

The chances ESR missed yesterday were decent chances. I say that factually as a comparison across all chances created in the league. Both his chances were above the average in the league created by all teams. The pressure on the player is irrelevant. Delivering under pressure is all part of a players performance.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:18 am

theHotHead wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
theHotHead wrote:I watched MoTD and the way Jay was talking in the matchday thread I thought ESR and others missed sitters. The quality of the chances was mediocre at best, in fact, in real time i didn't expect any of the efforts to go in, there was not a single clean cut chance made. You cannot fault the strikers for not taking opportunities because the opportunities created were simply ok, none of them were good chances.


They were decent chances.

You can always blame players for missing chances. They missed them. If they keep missing chances then they should lose their place in the side.

If players only scored the great chances where it's harder to miss than score most games would end 0-0.

You've lost perspective hothead. No team anywhere creates loads of chances that are tap ins or easy to convert. The majority of chances created are not as good as the two ESR missed, for example, against Burnley... Or the one he missed against Norwich. He and Pepe are the two biggest culprits right now for poor finishing. Both need to improve.

Jay, I will simplify my view, none of the chances were "should have scored" chances, those type of chances are not tap ins or open goals, they are good chances that favour the striker. The chances we created were "should be hitting the target there" chances. You don't expect to score "should be hitting the target" chances but at the very least you expect to work the keeper.


That's is correct hothead, but 95 percent plus of ALL chances created in the PL are ones where, on average, a player misses rather than scores.
The best players and teams, as has been shown, covert the 'could have scored' at a higher rate.

That's a bigger issue for us right now.... Converting.
We are second last in the league on chance conversion.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby theHotHead » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:23 am

Ok so we agree and disagree - where we do not align is - I think we need to create more should have scored chances than relying on improving our could have scored chances. We create so few of the former its no wonder we are struggling to score.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:29 am

theHotHead wrote:Ok so we agree and disagree - where we do not align is - I think we need to create more should have scored chances than relying on improving our could have scored chances. We create so few of the former its no wonder we are struggling to score.


That means we fully agree, because I also think, and the data backs it up, that we are not creating enough 'should have scored' chances. We are well behind the top teams in that score.
However that is not the only big issue..and I hope Arteta and the coaches don't focus on it at the expense of the even bigger issue. Chance conversion.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby Salibatelli » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:36 am

jayramfootball wrote:
Özim wrote:I wouldn’t call them decent chances to be honest, they were half chances.

Half chances aren’t easy and are often missed, you make out like we’re missing easy chances, we’re not, no blame on the players for me.

Lack of creativity is our issue, on top of that we create so few decent chances that when they do arrive there’s more pressure on them which of course makes players more likely to miss.


It is correct to say we are not creating good chances compared to the top teams. We are middle of the pack on that score and nearer the top teams in terms of total chances.

However the bigger issue is finishing.
We are clearly struggling on that score compared to other teams.

The chances ESR missed yesterday were decent chances. I say that factually as a comparison across all chances created in the league. Both his chances were above the average in the league created by all teams. The pressure on the player is irrelevant. Delivering under pressure is all part of a players performance.


ESR isn’t a good finisher right now, that’s not one of his strengths, some players never become good finishers, he could be one of them.

As someone rightly said we never addressed that in the summer.

Pepe, Martinelli and Aubameyang (maybe Laca but he’s very hit and miss) when he’s on form are our only goalscorers realistically , one of those doesn’t play much and we’ll only play two of those in the team in any game IMO.

The rest of the team aren’t particularly good at scoring goals.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:53 am

Özim wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
Özim wrote:I wouldn’t call them decent chances to be honest, they were half chances.

Half chances aren’t easy and are often missed, you make out like we’re missing easy chances, we’re not, no blame on the players for me.

Lack of creativity is our issue, on top of that we create so few decent chances that when they do arrive there’s more pressure on them which of course makes players more likely to miss.


It is correct to say we are not creating good chances compared to the top teams. We are middle of the pack on that score and nearer the top teams in terms of total chances.

However the bigger issue is finishing.
We are clearly struggling on that score compared to other teams.

The chances ESR missed yesterday were decent chances. I say that factually as a comparison across all chances created in the league. Both his chances were above the average in the league created by all teams. The pressure on the player is irrelevant. Delivering under pressure is all part of a players performance.


ESR isn’t a good finisher right now, that’s not one of his strengths, some players never become good finishers, he could be one of them.

As someone rightly said we never addressed that in the summer.

Pepe, Martinelli and Aubameyang (maybe Laca but he’s very hit and miss) when he’s on form are our only goalscorers realistically , one of those doesn’t play much and we’ll only play two of those in the team in any game IMO.

The rest of the team aren’t particularly good at scoring goals.


Yes. That is why we have scored a lot less goals than we should have.
Finishing needs to improve. Some of the older players will never get any better than they are now. The youngsters have space to get better, like ESR. He has to improve if he is going to reach the very top which he has a chance to do.

As for bringing players in, yes we do need a striker. I've said that before.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby theHotHead » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:09 am

As a team we don't spread the goals around enough, too few players score goals, that a big area that needs improvement, but Arteta seems to be doing a "reverse Wenger", focusing on defence and ignoring the attack - and it shows .... it showed with Wenger too !!
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:31 pm

I will be updating this shortly now that we have got to a further stage in the season, but as headline for now our chance creation (based on the quality of chances created and the number of chances created) over the last 8 game PL run has moved up a lot, to 6th best in the league. Only slightly behind Man City.
As a side point, we are also 3rd best in the league over that period for the chances given up.
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