Creativity & Chance Conversion

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Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:20 pm

I keep hearing a lot about how we lack creativity and in some ways, I agree and in others, I do not.
Rather than make it a binary argument that leads to all sorts of claims about what we need or how we're playing, i am going to keep track of it along with our ability to finish the chances we create.

Firstly how many chances are we actually creating, how does it compare to other teams and how are we converting those chances into goals (teams in bold have only played 3 games, not 4)

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Current League Rank for Chances Created: 6th
Current League Rank for % Chances Converted: 19th


To get more of a picture it's also necessary to look at the quality of the chances created - which can be measured by xG (expected goals)

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Current League Rank on Expected Goals : 10th
Current League Rank on Percentage of Expected Goals Scored : 20th


The 3rd area to look at is the average quality of each chance that is created...i.e. when a chance is created by a team what percentage would that chance normally be converted:

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Current League Rank for Average Quality of the Chances Created : 19th

This is where the argument that we are not creative enough has some merit - on average they are low-quality chances which is why at this point we'd have expected only 4-5 goals from 59 shots.

source:https://understat.com/match/16407 - Norwich game but all other games can be navigated to from here which shows all the data for shots, goals and chance quality
Last edited by jayramfootball on Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:47 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: Creativity

Postby Ach » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:24 pm

Major problem in this team. Arguably second biggest concern we have
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Re: Creativity

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:27 pm

Our biggest issue right now and the reason we only have 1 goal is we are the worst team in the league for finishing chances.

That said, it is also worth pointing out that whilst we have created a lot of chances, we're middle of the pack when you consider number of chances and quality of chances - we have played City and Chelsea however. Will be interesting to see how that ranking changes over time as other teams face harder games. I expect well move into the top 6 on xG in the next few weeks.

Probably the most damning number right now is that we are 20th in the league in terms of percentage converting when the number AND quality of chances is taken into account.

Depressing - but also offers hope. Get our shooting boots on and we'll rise up the league quickly.

Before anyone says it - this is not about Aubameyang. In fact, Aubameyang has converted at 99% of what he should have.. i.e. just a fraction below what would be expected.

The team overall is at a terrible 22.4%.

But to some up where we are now after 4 games:
We create a lot of chances, but those chances on average are not great chances. However, we create so many we'd have reasonably expected to score 4-5 goals, but because our finishing is the worst in the league, we've only scored 1.

That is the most objective summation you can expect to see on GW.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby swipe right » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:13 pm

I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:18 pm

swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.


You obviously didn't read properly.

If you can't see the chances we are creating you are not watching the games of don't really understand what you are watching.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby Ach » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:21 pm

swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.

All this is.

He even said if we had pl proven striker we'd be better.

Agenda have to be met
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:34 pm

Ach wrote:
swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.

All this is.

He even said if we had pl proven striker we'd be better.

Agenda have to be met


This is a fact-based thread.
Factually, this season so far our finishing has been the worst in the league and it will be maintained to dispel or support theories and subjectivity about how well we are creating chances and finishing them.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby DiamondGooner » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:51 pm

Two things.

One its your shtty manager Arteta who decided not to buy a striker and play Auba as a CF when he's probably better off as a LF / LWF.

Two, what is a chance anyway? I'd like to see what metrics they're judging as "A chance", Auba from what I saw was 50% on his conversion yesterday, he had two clear cut chances and he took one of them.

In large I have said that right now our offense is our most damning issue, but I repeat .......... who's decision was it to use the same forward line from last season who got us 8th?

Your manager did.

If anything this just makes you look even worse regarding the "Arteta Out" thread, I stated to you Arteta could of bought even one player in midfield or attack who was an improvement on our 2020/2021 starting 11 ........... he didn't and this is the result.

We've only improved on two starting players and both of them are in defense.

Live with it, this is what you're supporting.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:04 pm

DiamondGooner wrote:Two things.

One its your shtty manager Arteta who decided not to buy a striker and play Auba as a CF when he's probably better off as a LF / LWF.

Two, what is a chance anyway? I'd like to see what metrics they're judging as "A chance", Auba from what I saw was 50% on his conversion yesterday, he had two clear cut chances and he took one of them.

In large I have said that right now our offense is our most damning issue, but I repeat .......... who's decision was it to use the same forward line from last season who got us 8th?

Your manager did.

If anything this just makes you look even worse regarding the "Arteta Out" thread, I stated to you Arteta could of bought even one player in midfield or attack who was an improvement on our 2020/2021 starting 11 ........... he didn't and this is the result.

We've only improved on two starting players and both of them are in defense.

Live with it, this is what you're supporting.


Don't want to have another discussion about Arteta here.
Factual thread on creativity and chance conversion.

Not a dig - just want to keep it to the numbers.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby swipe right » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:04 pm

jayramfootball wrote:
swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.


You obviously didn't read properly.

If you can't see the chances we are creating you are not watching the games of don't really understand what you are watching.

Take the highlights of yesterday’s game and time stamp the chances you think we missed. Let’s see what you’re talking about.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:11 pm

swipe right wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.


You obviously didn't read properly.

If you can't see the chances we are creating you are not watching the games of don't really understand what you are watching.

Take the highlights of yesterday’s game and time stamp the chances you think we missed. Let’s see what you’re talking about.


I don't need to.
They are all available here:
https://understat.com/match/16407

Like I said - this is a factual thread - not biased opinion one way or the other and it will be maintained over the season.

What i said earlier holds true as the most objective assessment on this forum:
We create a lot of chances, but those chances on average are not great chances. However, we create so many we'd have reasonably expected to score 4-5 goals, but because our finishing is the worst in the league, we've only scored 1.


You can pretend we don't create any chances if you want, that's up to you. But it doesn't reflect reality.
Last edited by jayramfootball on Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby swipe right » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:12 pm

jayramfootball wrote:
swipe right wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.


You obviously didn't read properly.

If you can't see the chances we are creating you are not watching the games of don't really understand what you are watching.

Take the highlights of yesterday’s game and time stamp the chances you think we missed. Let’s see what you’re talking about.


I don't need to.
They are all available here:
https://understat.com/match/16407

Like I said - this is a factual thread - not biased opinion one way or the other and it will be maintained over the season.

Show us the chances. Come on.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby jayramfootball » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:15 pm

swipe right wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
swipe right wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
swipe right wrote:I know this is your underhanded way of blaming Auba, but seriously mate as someone who watches every game I cannot see these so called chances that we are fluffing. We are shit at creating anything. We are slow and lack any penetration in the box. We can’t pick up runners, we can’t link up, we can’t cross. We are just shit at everything.


You obviously didn't read properly.

If you can't see the chances we are creating you are not watching the games of don't really understand what you are watching.

Take the highlights of yesterday’s game and time stamp the chances you think we missed. Let’s see what you’re talking about.


I don't need to.
They are all available here:
https://understat.com/match/16407

Like I said - this is a factual thread - not biased opinion one way or the other and it will be maintained over the season.

Show us the chances. Come on.


Link provided - with timestamps of each chance, where the shot on the pitch came from and the quality of each chance
If you want to search the video on youtube or elsewhere, knock yourself out.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby DiamondGooner » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:16 pm

Yeah sorry I agree with Swipe here.

What is a chance? who's deciding it, data is inputed by people, maybe I disagree with what is a chance and what isn't, what are the fine margins.

This looks like Stat purgatory to me, I'll pass.
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Re: Creativity & Chance Conversion

Postby Ach » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:16 pm

I was at the game. There were barely any chances lol

He's trolling with another dig at auba
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