jayramfootball wrote:theHotHead wrote:Lets look at Auba this season, in league games he played:
Vs Chelsea (0-2), Arsenal xG 0.63
Vs Man C (0-5), Arsenal xG 0.12
Vs Norwich (1-0), Arsenal xG 2.69 (Auba scored)
Vs Burnley (0-1), Arsenal xG 1.1
Vs Spurs (3-1), Arsenal xG 1.44 (Auba scored)
Vs Brighton (0-0), Arsenal xG 0.36
Vs C Palace (2-2), Arsenal xG 1.74 (Auba scored)
Vs A Villa (3-1), Arsenal xG 3.5 (Auba scored + assist)
Vs Leicester (0-2), Arsenal xG 1.1
Vs Watford (1-0), Arsenal xG 1.49
Vs Liverpool (0-5), Arsenal xG 0.27
Vs Newcastle (2-0), Arsenal xG 2.84
Vs Man U (3-2), Arsenal xG 1.17.
Auba has an overall xG of 6.81, he has scored 4 goals. Now that I have given you the stats, let me give you my analysis, we do not create enough good chances. If we are creating good quality chances I would expect our xG to be higher than the goals we score but in 4 of the games above that Auba played in our xG is lower than the number of goals we scored.
There are 4 games where we have an xG lower than 1, we didnt score in any of those games, Auba himself would be reasonably expected to score 3 more goals than he has, given his xG is 6.81 and he has scored 4 goals. The point is though in all but 1 of our highest xG games Auba played in, he scored goals in each of them.
The smoking gun is not Auba, its the attacking system deployed by Arteta thats the problem. We are creatively wank.
XG says that Auba 'should have scored' 7 PL goals this season - he has 4. He has the worst finishing stat in the entire squad on that basis. Pepe being the second worst.
Those 3 goals would have been real nice, never mind what a top finisher can do who exceeds their xG.
There is no real argument anymore - Auba needs to be replaced.
We're paying 350k a week for a 10 goal a season striker.
If you are going to do an xG, do it comparatively.
Our xG is 7th in the league, yet we've scored the 11th most goals in the league. Our finishing is crap and Auba is the main culprit in the squad.
You talk about Auba not getting chances?
Only 3 players in the entire premier league have a higher xG than Auba.Jamie Vardy's xG is LOWER and he has 9 goals.
Vardy, Antonio. Ronaldo, Raphinha, Dennis, King, Wilson, Pukki, Maupay, Son, Silva, Sarr, Fernandes, Smith Rowe and Cornet all have LOWER xGs than Auba (some by a lot) and MORE goals.
Gallagher, Benteke, Watkins, Saha, Tommy, Firmino, Fornals, Mount, Greenwood, Hwang, Gray and James have MUCH lower xG than Auba but have scored the same amount of goals.
Auba has
THE WORST differencein the
ENTIRE Premier league
REGARDLESS OF POSITION in terms of goals he should gave scored vs goals he has scored. Yep,
he's statistically the worst finisher in the entire league, for 350k a week.
^read that again!
Tell me again how it's none of his fault.