by Angelito » Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:32 am
Oscars do have credibility, but that's not always the case. Kubrick never won Best Director; Hitchcock didn't either. Peter O'Toole never won Best Actor. Those are shady decisions.
Kubrick had it tough though, when Clockwork Orange came out, it was pitting against The French Connection. You can't say that it was an unfair decision. Space Odyssey lost to Oliver, and that was a travesty. Strangelove should have won it, but can't complain about Barry Lyndon. It was against One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, so yeah.
If you want to look at an actor who won back-to-back Best Actor awards, you'd have to go back to the 30s with Spencer Tracy and most recently, Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994. For actresses, Katherine Hepburn won it back-to-back in the 60s.
Only two directors have ever won Oscars for two years running: Joseph L. Mankiewicz and John Ford. If Inarritu wins it this year, he'll be joining an elite company. What works in favor of Revenant is the length of the movie. Generally, Oscar award for Best Picture goes to long movies. Revenant is the longest of all movies nominated. However, as Callum said, it doesn't have the complexity that Oscars demand.
Room is under 2 hours and Spotlight is just over 2 hours. Martian runs at 144 mins, while Mad Max runs for exact 2 hours. Brooklyn is too short at 110 mins to stand a chance. Yet, Bridge of Spies is pretty lengthy at 142 mins. The Big Short too runs at 130 mins. So, you could see the trend. Revenant, Martian, Bridge of Spies, and the Big Short have a running time of over 140 mins.
Of course, length is not the only criteria. Epic scale of the movie, complex characters, performances, social/economical/spiritual consequences, and storyline all contribute in deciding who gets it. I wouldn't be surprised if a completely unexpected movie like Martian or, worse, Bridge of Spies wins it. BOS has two personalities that Oscars seem to love (Tom Hanks and Spielberg). But Spotlight, at 128 mins, seems to fulfil the criteria of Oscars for Best Picture, so it has the best chance to win it.
As for Best Director, they have to give it to Inarritu - for the way he handled such an epic as Revenant and still managed to come out with flying colors. You also have to consider that Ridley Scot is a veteran and the oldest nominee in that list. He may get an "honorary award" similar to what Scorsese got with The Departed. It's a real possibility.