jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the
'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by
'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the
'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are
'Favourites' not
'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your
'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....