21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby jayramfootball » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:40 am

starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
Losmeister wrote:we all knew b4 the season started mustafi was a disaster. and it comes home to roost at the worst moment.

but...arent we still 4th by GD?



yes - but we had a real chance here to go 3 pts clear of 5th spot with 4 games to go. It would have given us some breathing room.
Now we have 3 of our last 4 games away form home. One of those is against Leicester and another against Wolves. We'll be big underdogs in both those games and we have to win them both.

Wolves are 2/1 arsenal 6/4
Leicester 7/4 Arsenal 6/4 so no


Prior to the Palace game:
"Arsenal are 8/15 favourites to win the match while a Palace win is priced at 11/2. The draw can be backed at 7/2. Arsenal have conceded only one goal in their last seven matches across all competitions. The Gunners are 13/8 to keep a clean sheet"

That worked out well.
Bookies are often wrong when it comes to us - they don't properly factor in how mentally weak our players are. Can't blame them - who could account for Mustafi's antics yesterday?
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby Arsenal Tone » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:12 am

starmandb wrote:
Tony_Adams wrote:Anyone else still pissed off about the result?

I'm still pissed off about losing 3-2 home to Aston villa in 88/89
Don't pay to dwell though


:biggrin:
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby Angelito » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:56 am

The worst part that's being ignored is that we conceded 3 goals at home. We did score 2. So, scoring at least isn't an issue.

There's losing by a goal. But conceding 3 at home is unacceptable.
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby starmandb » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:44 am

jayramfootball wrote:
starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
Losmeister wrote:we all knew b4 the season started mustafi was a disaster. and it comes home to roost at the worst moment.

but...arent we still 4th by GD?



yes - but we had a real chance here to go 3 pts clear of 5th spot with 4 games to go. It would have given us some breathing room.
Now we have 3 of our last 4 games away form home. One of those is against Leicester and another against Wolves. We'll be big underdogs in both those games and we have to win them both.

Wolves are 2/1 arsenal 6/4
Leicester 7/4 Arsenal 6/4 so no


Prior to the Palace game:
"Arsenal are 8/15 favourites to win the match while a Palace win is priced at 11/2. The draw can be backed at 7/2. Arsenal have conceded only one goal in their last seven matches across all competitions. The Gunners are 13/8 to keep a clean sheet"

That worked out well.
Bookies are often wrong when it comes to us - they don't properly factor in how mentally weak our players are. Can't blame them - who could account for Mustafi's antics yesterday?

All that still does not make us underdogs
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby starmandb » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:53 am

Angelito wrote:The worst part that's being ignored is that we conceded 3 goals at home. We did score 2. So, scoring at least isn't an issue.

There's losing by a goal. But conceding 3 at home is unacceptable.

88/89
Lost 3-2 Aston villa
3-1 Notts forest
97/98
Lost 3-1 Blackburn
01/02
Drew 3-3 Blackburn
Lost 4-2 charlton
3-1 Newcastle
Beat Everton 4-3
Man city lost 3-2 at home to crystal palace this season
It's football
It's how you respond
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby Phil71 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:24 am

Interest: waning wrote:
swipe right wrote:Bad result but good game. Fast paced and end to end. Palace played really well.
f**k off.
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby jayramfootball » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:38 am

starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
Losmeister wrote:we all knew b4 the season started mustafi was a disaster. and it comes home to roost at the worst moment.

but...arent we still 4th by GD?



yes - but we had a real chance here to go 3 pts clear of 5th spot with 4 games to go. It would have given us some breathing room.
Now we have 3 of our last 4 games away form home. One of those is against Leicester and another against Wolves. We'll be big underdogs in both those games and we have to win them both.

Wolves are 2/1 arsenal 6/4
Leicester 7/4 Arsenal 6/4 so no


Prior to the Palace game:
"Arsenal are 8/15 favourites to win the match while a Palace win is priced at 11/2. The draw can be backed at 7/2. Arsenal have conceded only one goal in their last seven matches across all competitions. The Gunners are 13/8 to keep a clean sheet"

That worked out well.
Bookies are often wrong when it comes to us - they don't properly factor in how mentally weak our players are. Can't blame them - who could account for Mustafi's antics yesterday?

All that still does not make us underdogs


Yeah, it does. Our away form for the last 18 months makes it pretty obvious.
This season Wolves lost 5 of 17 games at home. We've won 6 of 16 away.
Wolves have already managed to get a draw with City, beat Chelsea and beat Utd at their ground.
We only managed a draw with them in the home game and we're not really favourites in ANY away game.
We can still win, but it would be against the norm.
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby starmandb » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:42 am

jayramfootball wrote:
starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
Losmeister wrote:we all knew b4 the season started mustafi was a disaster. and it comes home to roost at the worst moment.

but...arent we still 4th by GD?



yes - but we had a real chance here to go 3 pts clear of 5th spot with 4 games to go. It would have given us some breathing room.
Now we have 3 of our last 4 games away form home. One of those is against Leicester and another against Wolves. We'll be big underdogs in both those games and we have to win them both.

Wolves are 2/1 arsenal 6/4
Leicester 7/4 Arsenal 6/4 so no


Prior to the Palace game:
"Arsenal are 8/15 favourites to win the match while a Palace win is priced at 11/2. The draw can be backed at 7/2. Arsenal have conceded only one goal in their last seven matches across all competitions. The Gunners are 13/8 to keep a clean sheet"

That worked out well.
Bookies are often wrong when it comes to us - they don't properly factor in how mentally weak our players are. Can't blame them - who could account for Mustafi's antics yesterday?

All that still does not make us underdogs


Yeah, it does. Our away form for the last 18 months makes it pretty obvious.
Wolves lost 5 of 17 games at home. We've won 6 of 16 away.
We're not really favourites in ANY away game.
We can still win, but it would be against the norm.

You don't understand how the betting market works then
If you are a lower price than the other team you are not underdogs
You may believe we will not win
That's your prerogative
But why you feel the need to keep expressing that on an Arsenal forum rather than taking your concerns to your pillow is beyond me
Guess it's the modern world
Everybody needs to emote
Pathetic
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby jayramfootball » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:38 pm

starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
starmandb wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:
Losmeister wrote:we all knew b4 the season started mustafi was a disaster. and it comes home to roost at the worst moment.

but...arent we still 4th by GD?



yes - but we had a real chance here to go 3 pts clear of 5th spot with 4 games to go. It would have given us some breathing room.
Now we have 3 of our last 4 games away form home. One of those is against Leicester and another against Wolves. We'll be big underdogs in both those games and we have to win them both.

Wolves are 2/1 arsenal 6/4
Leicester 7/4 Arsenal 6/4 so no


Prior to the Palace game:
"Arsenal are 8/15 favourites to win the match while a Palace win is priced at 11/2. The draw can be backed at 7/2. Arsenal have conceded only one goal in their last seven matches across all competitions. The Gunners are 13/8 to keep a clean sheet"

That worked out well.
Bookies are often wrong when it comes to us - they don't properly factor in how mentally weak our players are. Can't blame them - who could account for Mustafi's antics yesterday?

All that still does not make us underdogs


Yeah, it does. Our away form for the last 18 months makes it pretty obvious.
Wolves lost 5 of 17 games at home. We've won 6 of 16 away.
We're not really favourites in ANY away game.
We can still win, but it would be against the norm.

You don't understand how the betting market works then
If you are a lower price than the other team you are not underdogs
You may believe we will not win
That's your prerogative
But why you feel the need to keep expressing that on an Arsenal forum rather than taking your concerns to your pillow is beyond me
Guess it's the modern world
Everybody needs to emote
Pathetic


I never mentioned the betting markets when I said we were underdogs. You did.
Pathetic.
:think:
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby Arsenal Tone » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:53 pm

Its not pathetic coming on here to moan. Better to be a miserable barsteward on here and more chilled in the real world than the other way around!
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby EliteKiller » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:00 pm

jayramfootball wrote:Yeah, it does. Our away form for the last 18 months makes it pretty obvious.
This season Wolves lost 5 of 17 games at home. We've won 6 of 16 away.
Wolves have already managed to get a draw with City, beat Chelsea and beat Utd at their ground.
We only managed a draw with them in the home game and we're not really favourites in ANY away game.
We can still win, but it would be against the norm.


Your logic is 100% flawed .....

If we played Nobby Rovers from Division 12 who had a home record of 20-0-0 would that still make us underdogs?

We are 4th on 66 points Wolves are 10th on 48 points ... so this season who are the better side? as for history we've played them away 50 times W21 L18 D11 so still the better side ... in fact we haven't lost at their place since 1978 ...

As for this season's form, sure Wolves have won a few at home, but then Wolves have also lost at home to Watford - Huddersfield - Crystal Palace hardly teams with stellar away form ......

Underdog - in a competition, the person or team considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win

Are you seriously arguing that we are worse than Wolves?
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby jayramfootball » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:03 pm

EliteKiller wrote:
jayramfootball wrote:Yeah, it does. Our away form for the last 18 months makes it pretty obvious.
This season Wolves lost 5 of 17 games at home. We've won 6 of 16 away.
Wolves have already managed to get a draw with City, beat Chelsea and beat Utd at their ground.
We only managed a draw with them in the home game and we're not really favourites in ANY away game.
We can still win, but it would be against the norm.


Your logic is 100% flawed .....

If we played Nobby Rovers from Division 12 who had a home record of 20-0-0 would that still make us underdogs?

We are 4th on 66 points Wolves are 10th on 48 points ... so this season who are the better side? as for history we've played them away 50 times W21 L18 D11 so still the better side ... in fact we haven't lost at their place since 1978 ...

As for this season's form, sure Wolves have won a few at home, but then Wolves have also lost at home to Watford - Huddersfield - Crystal Palace hardly teams with stellar away form ......

Underdog - in a competition, the person or team considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win

Are you seriously arguing that we are worse than Wolves?


Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.

My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby Losmeister » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:59 pm

Tony_Adams wrote:
starmandb wrote:
Tony_Adams wrote:Anyone else still pissed off about the result?

I'm still pissed off about losing 3-2 home to Aston villa in 88/89
Don't pay to dwell though


:biggrin:


it's a good thing i was not haviing a sip of mroning coffee... it would have shot out through my nose for sure...
Kai Havertz nutmegged ur GK
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby gooney » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:17 pm

My issue with emery was proven once again rigjt. He is an overthinker and adaptstoo much to his opponents. He played jenkinson ahead of amn because palace is big side and he thought catl would help on set pieces. Then carl cost him a goal on a set piece. He never learn playing 5 at the back is negative and deserved this loss because if this. You have 2 good defenders in the clyb and you playwith 5 against a team that was playing with 1 striker. Small time coach
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Re: 21/04/19 | Arsenal 2-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League

Postby EliteKiller » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:17 pm

jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.

My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.


Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.

In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.

In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.

So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw

Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11

So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.

As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.

It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....

What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
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