by Rockape » Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:35 pm
by jayramfootball » Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:59 pm
EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
by starmandb » Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:17 pm
jayramfootball wrote:EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
Computer models to maximise profit - exactly.
Now enough of the theory...
..and on to reality....
When the bookmakers have made Arsenal favourites away from home they have been wrong more then 50% of the time.
Reality wins.
by CynicalGooner » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:06 pm
by jayramfootball » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:34 pm
starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
Computer models to maximise profit - exactly.
Now enough of the theory...
..and on to reality....
When the bookmakers have made Arsenal favourites away from home they have been wrong more then 50% of the time.
Reality wins.
The bookie gets 2 bites of the cherry
He gets the draw as well
We were not favorites at man city Liverpool Spurs Chelsea or man Utd
So the bookie has only got it wrong on 3 games
That's 27 percent
There is a reason there are more paying in Windows than paying out
by starmandb » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:01 pm
jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
Computer models to maximise profit - exactly.
Now enough of the theory...
..and on to reality....
When the bookmakers have made Arsenal favourites away from home they have been wrong more then 50% of the time.
Reality wins.
The bookie gets 2 bites of the cherry
He gets the draw as well
We were not favorites at man city Liverpool Spurs Chelsea or man Utd
So the bookie has only got it wrong on 3 games
That's 27 percent
There is a reason there are more paying in Windows than paying out
You were saying?
I did warn you. We were massive underdogs against Woves and so it proved.
The bookies will have cleaned up, though, drawing in the suckers to bet on the 'favourite'.
Same with Leicester - we're big underdogs.
by jayramfootball » Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:23 pm
starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
Computer models to maximise profit - exactly.
Now enough of the theory...
..and on to reality....
When the bookmakers have made Arsenal favourites away from home they have been wrong more then 50% of the time.
Reality wins.
The bookie gets 2 bites of the cherry
He gets the draw as well
We were not favorites at man city Liverpool Spurs Chelsea or man Utd
So the bookie has only got it wrong on 3 games
That's 27 percent
There is a reason there are more paying in Windows than paying out
You were saying?
I did warn you. We were massive underdogs against Woves and so it proved.
The bookies will have cleaned up, though, drawing in the suckers to bet on the 'favourite'.
Same with Leicester - we're big underdogs.
Point still stands
That's why Leicester are 7/4 and we are 6/4
You may believe that Leicester have more chance of winning than Arsenal
That does not make Arsenal underdogs
by starmandb » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:57 pm
jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
Computer models to maximise profit - exactly.
Now enough of the theory...
..and on to reality....
When the bookmakers have made Arsenal favourites away from home they have been wrong more then 50% of the time.
Reality wins.
The bookie gets 2 bites of the cherry
He gets the draw as well
We were not favorites at man city Liverpool Spurs Chelsea or man Utd
So the bookie has only got it wrong on 3 games
That's 27 percent
There is a reason there are more paying in Windows than paying out
You were saying?
I did warn you. We were massive underdogs against Woves and so it proved.
The bookies will have cleaned up, though, drawing in the suckers to bet on the 'favourite'.
Same with Leicester - we're big underdogs.
Point still stands
That's why Leicester are 7/4 and we are 6/4
You may believe that Leicester have more chance of winning than Arsenal
That does not make Arsenal underdogs
The term 'underdogs' is not hard wired to bookmakers. That is where you got confused.
Regardless, I explained to you already that the bookies generally make us favourites in away games unless against a top 6 side - and they are usually wrong.
I, however, was not wrong. I made us underdogs for very good reason and I was correct.
We're underdogs against Leicester - big underdogs - but feel free to have a bet on the 'favourites'. The bookies will love you for it.
by jayramfootball » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:34 am
starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:jayramfootball wrote:EliteKiller wrote:jayramfootball wrote:Considered by who? Just so you know, bookmakers are not interested in the team "considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win". They set their odds to solicit bets in the optimal way to make money. It's rare for them NOT to make us "favourites" in our away games, yet they have been correct less than 50% of the time. One bet I would make is that they made money, nonetheless. If you actually stopped to think about it, it would be obvious to you - or you could try a little test. Back the 'favourite' a few times and see how much money you lose.
My logic is 100% perfect. We rarely win away and Wolves rarely lose at home. So, yes, I am arguing that Wolves at home are better than us away.
Hmmmm .... bookmaking is today all done by computers and represents the 'expected' outcome of any event, those initial odds are immediately influenced by 'live' bets with the bookmaker's liability determining the odds from that point forward.
In simple terms bookmakers consider, history, form, injuries, and previous betting history. This means that Arsenal will nearly always start as favourites home or away against any team outside of the top six ... that's because more money will be wagered on Arsenal than the opposition.
In a two horse race there are only three outcomes W - L - D in this case the odds are 7/5 - 9/5 - 12/5 .... the idea being that the bookmaker wants a book where he wins the same regardless of the result, but that's fairly hard in a three horse race.
So let's take a scenario where 300 pounds staked (for simplicity we will ignore tax) 115 on Arsenal, 100 on Wolves and 85 on the draw
Arsenal win the 115 pounds returns 276 pounds ---- bookie wins 24
Wolves win the 100 pounds returns 280 pounds ---- bookie wins 20
Draw wins the 85 pounds returns 289 pounds ---- bookie wins 11
So not a perfect book for the book maker but he knows the chances of a draw are between 10% and 15% so because that happens rarely it makes him the least profit.
As you can see the 'favourite' winning, which is by far the most common result in football, is also the most profitable result for the bookmaker .... this is massively simplified but hopefully you get the idea.
It's why Arsenal are 'Favourites' not 'Underdogs' it's just very simply down to the power of money .....
What you are talking about is your 'expectation' but that's not how favourites and underdogs work ....
Computer models to maximise profit - exactly.
Now enough of the theory...
..and on to reality....
When the bookmakers have made Arsenal favourites away from home they have been wrong more then 50% of the time.
Reality wins.
The bookie gets 2 bites of the cherry
He gets the draw as well
We were not favorites at man city Liverpool Spurs Chelsea or man Utd
So the bookie has only got it wrong on 3 games
That's 27 percent
There is a reason there are more paying in Windows than paying out
You were saying?
I did warn you. We were massive underdogs against Woves and so it proved.
The bookies will have cleaned up, though, drawing in the suckers to bet on the 'favourite'.
Same with Leicester - we're big underdogs.
Point still stands
That's why Leicester are 7/4 and we are 6/4
You may believe that Leicester have more chance of winning than Arsenal
That does not make Arsenal underdogs
The term 'underdogs' is not hard wired to bookmakers. That is where you got confused.
Regardless, I explained to you already that the bookies generally make us favourites in away games unless against a top 6 side - and they are usually wrong.
I, however, was not wrong. I made us underdogs for very good reason and I was correct.
We're underdogs against Leicester - big underdogs - but feel free to have a bet on the 'favourites'. The bookies will love you for it.
No it takes into account things like league positions and quality of squad as well
We have both better
by starmandb » Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:32 pm
by jayramfootball » Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:11 am
starmandb wrote:I don't care about scoring points I care about the welfare of Arsenal
I believed we could beat wolves
I believe we can beat Leicester
I believe we can beat anyone
by starmandb » Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:25 pm
jayramfootball wrote:starmandb wrote:I don't care about scoring points I care about the welfare of Arsenal
I believed we could beat wolves
I believe we can beat Leicester
I believe we can beat anyone
On our day we CAN beat anyone.
3pts away to Leicester is going to be an uphill battle, but possible.
At least we can both agree that we hope that happens.