British Politics

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Re: British Politics

Postby Phil71 » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:18 pm

UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:
UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:You don't think the government already has the use of the best legal advice available?


Not necessarily. I'm sure they have good lawyers but not necessarily the best

The difference with Starmer is, politics aside he is unquestionably a top lawyer.


The current Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, has a much longer and more various legal career than Keir Starker. Both domestically and internationally.


Yes I've read his bio and to his credit he does seem to be dispensing his advice to the government in an independent way. The problem with the law and politics is, what you need is impartial advice and politicians are rarely impartial


I agree the government needs all the help it can get. The trouble is though, I’m not sure Starmer will be any more politically impartial than Cox, and in any case, each Party would pick and choose which legal advice they’d go with based on their own agenda.

There’s definitely more to this move of bringing Labour to the table than meets the eye. I can’t believe that the sum output of a seven hour cabinet meeting is a decision to see what Corbyn & co think.

My guess is they want to pass a share of the shit storm that’s to come from leave AND remain voters onto Labour before the inevitable General Election, because this deal pleases nobody.
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Re: British Politics

Postby UFGN » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:23 pm

Phil71 wrote:
UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:
UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:You don't think the government already has the use of the best legal advice available?


Not necessarily. I'm sure they have good lawyers but not necessarily the best

The difference with Starmer is, politics aside he is unquestionably a top lawyer.


The current Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, has a much longer and more various legal career than Keir Starker. Both domestically and internationally.


Yes I've read his bio and to his credit he does seem to be dispensing his advice to the government in an independent way. The problem with the law and politics is, what you need is impartial advice and politicians are rarely impartial


I agree the government needs all the help it can get. The trouble is though, I’m not sure Starmer will be any more politically impartial than Cox, and in any case, each Party would pick and choose which legal advice they’d go with based on their own agenda.

There’s definitely more to this move of bringing Labour to the table than meets the eye. I can’t believe that the sum output of a seven hour cabinet meeting is a decision to see what Corbyn & co think.

My guess is they want to pass a share of the shit storm that’s to come from leave voters onto Labour before the inevitable General Election.


Yes I agree although Corbyn seems to be playing his hand quite well. He couldn't refuse outright to meet them because he'd be criticised for that as well

So far the political effect of involving Labour seems to be negative for the cons because a lot if their true blue crew are furious about it
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Re: British Politics

Postby Phil71 » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:37 pm

UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:
UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:
UFGN wrote:
Phil71 wrote:You don't think the government already has the use of the best legal advice available?


Not necessarily. I'm sure they have good lawyers but not necessarily the best

The difference with Starmer is, politics aside he is unquestionably a top lawyer.


The current Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, has a much longer and more various legal career than Keir Starker. Both domestically and internationally.


Yes I've read his bio and to his credit he does seem to be dispensing his advice to the government in an independent way. The problem with the law and politics is, what you need is impartial advice and politicians are rarely impartial


I agree the government needs all the help it can get. The trouble is though, I’m not sure Starmer will be any more politically impartial than Cox, and in any case, each Party would pick and choose which legal advice they’d go with based on their own agenda.

There’s definitely more to this move of bringing Labour to the table than meets the eye. I can’t believe that the sum output of a seven hour cabinet meeting is a decision to see what Corbyn & co think.

My guess is they want to pass a share of the shit storm that’s to come from leave voters onto Labour before the inevitable General Election.


Yes I agree although Corbyn seems to be playing his hand quite well. He couldn't refuse outright to meet them because he'd be criticised for that as well

So far the political effect of involving Labour seems to be negative for the cons because a lot if their true blue crew are furious about it


And if Corbyn is seen to get a Tory leave deal through the house?
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Re: British Politics

Postby UFGN » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:39 pm

Then he's f***ked

Him, but not the whole labour party
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Re: British Politics

Postby Phil71 » Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:20 pm

UFGN wrote:Then he's f***ked

Him, but not the whole labour party


The funny thing is, his proposal for remaining in the single market would be contained in the political declaration - not the withdrawal agreement.

If he does now support the withdrawal agreement, it will be the very same one that he whipped his Party to vote against when it stood on its own for approval last week.
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Re: British Politics

Postby DiamondGooner » Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:34 pm

I have no objection to a Norway deal as we're clearly not even close to being prepared to arrange this nations deals and customs and excise in weeks let alone months, plus legislation, or have an answer to the backstop.

Officially we're no better than remaining but I suppose we as non-members can cease the arrangement whenever we want so at least we have latitude, we could then from that platform take our time and decide in the future what we want to do regarding full leave or full Remain, we're also not using the Euro so maybe this Norway style deal is actually appropriate for our status.

We can then take stock and ensure that if such binary choices as Leave or Remain get raised again that they fully prepare their answers before committing to a referendum which wasn't put to the people properly.

I still feel and accept that Leave actually did mean Leave, as in No Deal, David Cameron certainly phrased it that way but Leave won the vote then sat back and said "Ok, now you lot deal with it" it doesn't work that way, Boris Johnson looked horrified when the media were asking if he was going to run for PM.
Where was Leaves plan? where were their solutions for the Irish Backstop, where was their solution to Gibraltar etc

If they didn't provide or have the answers to that then win or lose they had no business running the vote.

I noticed in particular the Backstop completely done them and I've not heard one solid solution to it, without this solution Leave was a non-starter to being with .......... idiots.
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Re: British Politics

Postby Phil71 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:00 am

So she has formally asked for an extension to 30th June, but will leave sooner if she can get the deal approved by Parliament.
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Re: British Politics

Postby Reverend Gooner » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:31 am

We should just accept Tusk's offer, it makes much more sense.
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Re: British Politics

Postby DiamondGooner » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:03 pm

Here we fkin go again .......... just when you thought May was going to concede to negotiating, so done with her.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-crisi ... r-11685156
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Re: British Politics

Postby Reverend Gooner » Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:43 pm

It is mad, when you are the one who has a deal which is not good enough in it's current form then you are the one who needs to compromise. This is not surprising by her reputation. This was most likely a ruse in order to make the EU more favourable for an extension but I am glad that labour have called them out on it and mentioned the red flag of no cabinet resignations. It was all too obvious, I don't know what the game was really. We will have to wait and see what the government says about the meetings.

I know you say that a 'no deal' brexit cannot happen diamond but I am genuinely worried now as 200 Tory ministers want it, 14 out of 28 cabinet ministers and the media keep spinning polls to make it look like the people want it too. Are you still sure it is not going to happen?

The Tories only look after themselves that's true and the chaos of a no deal brexit and the freedom gives them the chance to implement their agenda without EU shackles but what makes them think they will get to do that? The public knows the Tories are the only party wanting no deal and would be responsible for it whether they did or not as they are in government. When you look at the leaks and economic predictions, the countrysurely would not forgive them. It should be a labour landslide the next election after a no deal. Unless the US trade deal does all the damage needed and they will rush it through before the next election and happily sit out the next couple of governments while the terms of the deal do the work for them.

Or are they just hoping that the leave voters thank them for being on "their side" and their only argument, that the failure of the other parties to pass the deal is the reason for no deal, will wash. As that really will not wash, anyone can see the lengths other parties went to stop no deal, that drastic Cooper bill being just one example. The leavers were told Brexit would usher in great times after a little pain, if the economy and society is hit as hard as predicted they will not overlook that.
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Re: British Politics

Postby DiamondGooner » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:59 pm

Its not happening.

The majority in Parliament won't accept it, they're already putting motions and amendments forward to block it and have made it clear the best they'll stomach is a Norway deal.

The EU can't allow it, the UK free of paying them, free to compete, free to not allow immigration, they won't say it out loud obviously but this has huge ramifications for the EU, especially the immigration pressures on their countries if Britain pulls up the jaw bridge, Far right parties will swell across Europe and engulf their politics............ and Far Right parties want out of the EU, this is so important its why every EU perk i.e a Customs Union or Single Market comes with ............. the Freedom of movement caveat, and they lean on the Backstop so much because ......... the backstop requires us to be in the Customs union for it to remain borderless, game set and match ........... unless, we go for No Deal, hence they can't allow it.

Finally Theresa May, I think she's already demonstrated that she'll not allow it to happen, she is a Remainer and although she's pushing hard for her exit deal, its no exit deal at all ............ and we know this because the EU gave her that patsy, they also want us to take it which show's exactly what it is, its their lock in to strip us fkin dry, once the withdrawal is enacted its game time for that vaunted "deal" to be arranged, we'll be over a barrel lubed up with no way out, back stop indeed, which is why Leave are so objected to it and the EU so favourable ........ its not May's deal, its the deal the EU gave her.
There's a reason some of those fkers in the EU couldn't wait to open their big mouths, Spain "We'll be discussing the sovereignty of Gibraltar and we want our terms met otherwise we'll veto any proposed deal", France "We'll be discussing access to fishing waters or we'll veto any deal", Germany "We'll be discussing tariffs on car imports with competitors otherwise we'll veto any deal" and so on and so on .......... and we'll have to put up with it, why? because we'll be locked in LEGALLY.

............... so erhhh yeah, everyone in power can't let it happen, all you have is a handful of Tories vs all the above hence why they can't even get a fart through the Commons without it being voted down.

All No Deal is now, is an empty threat used to leverage those who can't see the bigger picture to fall in line, Labour know all this by the way, which is why they've called May's No Deal bluff on every occasion and is why she's now buttering them up, they've called her hand and she's been shown to be holding a duff.
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Re: British Politics

Postby Phil71 » Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:38 am

And let's face it - MPs are being asked to leave a gravy train that each of them could potentially hop on in the event of their being booted out domestically.
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Re: British Politics

Postby Reverend Gooner » Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:37 pm

DiamondGooner wrote:Its not happening.

The majority in Parliament won't accept it, they're already putting motions and amendments forward to block it and have made it clear the best they'll stomach is a Norway deal.

The EU can't allow it, the UK free of paying them, free to compete, free to not allow immigration, they won't say it out loud obviously but this has huge ramifications for the EU, especially the immigration pressures on their countries if Britain pulls up the jaw bridge, Far right parties will swell across Europe and engulf their politics............ and Far Right parties want out of the EU, this is so important its why every EU perk i.e a Customs Union or Single Market comes with ............. the Freedom of movement caveat, and they lean on the Backstop so much because ......... the backstop requires us to be in the Customs union for it to remain borderless, game set and match ........... unless, we go for No Deal, hence they can't allow it.

Finally Theresa May, I think she's already demonstrated that she'll not allow it to happen, she is a Remainer and although she's pushing hard for her exit deal, its no exit deal at all ............ and we know this because the EU gave her that patsy, they also want us to take it which show's exactly what it is, its their lock in to strip us fkin dry, once the withdrawal is enacted its game time for that vaunted "deal" to be arranged, we'll be over a barrel lubed up with no way out, back stop indeed, which is why Leave are so objected to it and the EU so favourable ........ its not May's deal, its the deal the EU gave her.
There's a reason some of those fkers in the EU couldn't wait to open their big mouths, Spain "We'll be discussing the sovereignty of Gibraltar and we want our terms met otherwise we'll veto any proposed deal", France "We'll be discussing access to fishing waters or we'll veto any deal", Germany "We'll be discussing tariffs on car imports with competitors otherwise we'll veto any deal" and so on and so on .......... and we'll have to put up with it, why? because we'll be locked in LEGALLY.

............... so erhhh yeah, everyone in power can't let it happen, all you have is a handful of Tories vs all the above hence why they can't even get a fart through the Commons without it being voted down.

All No Deal is now, is an empty threat used to leverage those who can't see the bigger picture to fall in line, Labour know all this by the way, which is why they've called May's No Deal bluff on every occasion and is why she's now buttering them up, they've called her hand and she's been shown to be holding a duff.


That Cooper ammendment only won by 1 vote and apparently because an ERG member accidentally went down the yes corridor and had to abstain. I just looked and my local Tory MP was one of only 14 Tory Mps who backed the bill, surprising.

Apparently it is 200 Tory MPs that want no deal which is alot and all of the front runners for the next Tory leader are no deal believers, come December she is gone and they are in. If she is the only reason they are being held back thank God she won the vote of no confidence. If the Cooper bill is reciprocal for all circumstances where time is running out and not just this time we need to hope the lords pass it, the Tory peers were filibustering the hell out of it on Thursday.

If May's deal is so bad (which I agree it is, especially if the EU countries are going to behave like that), why are so many conservative MPs voting for it? Is it because they know it won't pass so most back it to put up a united front? Surely in order to pull off something like that the Tory party would have to be way more united than it is reported to be.

Most crucially if the MP's of all parties know no deal is not going to happen or can't be made to happen and that May's deal is an EU trap (and I assume they are all well aware of the real score of both matters), why is there clearly no majority for a second referendum? As that would give them the out of saying it was the 'people's decision' and not theirs.

All that is left is a softer brexit (as the Tories are clearly afraid of an election) but that seems to be off the table too or an EU U turn on terms seems incredibly unlikely. I honestly don't see how any MP can want May's deal to pass considering the position it puts us in and means we may lose Gibraltar, Northern Ireland or both. That is why I am worried about the no deal supporters getting their way in the end, i would feel easier if parliament was more amiable to a people's vote, I could understand the reluctance earlier on but we are at squeeky bum time now and still it is not close, even Ken Clarke is saying it is not worth pressing.
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Re: British Politics

Postby DiamondGooner » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:48 pm

Reverend Gooner wrote:Apparently it is 200 Tory MPs that want no deal which is alot and all of the front runners for the next Tory leader are no deal believers, come December she is gone and they are in.


Which may explain May's change of tact as she has clearly displayed a will to get this agreement sorted asap, her now throwing the Con Leaver's under the bus to work with Labour is likely a last ditch attempt to get a deal done before the end of the year.
It also clearly shows that she never was going to entertain No Deal for her to drop her Leave support so easily, the only reason she cosy'd up to Leave is because she tried to get enough of them to support her deal .......... which clearly isn't enough hence why she's dumped them so brutally.

Reverend Gooner wrote:If May's deal is so bad (which I agree it is, especially if the EU countries are going to behave like that), why are so many conservative MPs voting for it? Is it because they know it won't pass so most back it to put up a united front? Surely in order to pull off something like that the Tory party would have to be way more united than it is reported to be.


Well they weren't voting for it, twice the motion got absolutely crushed, the latest one which was closer got the support of Leave because A) they're getting desperate and can see Parliament edging out No Deal altogether and B) May deliberately left out half the details of her withdrawal deal to make it more palatable for Leave to support it, I think Leave's view was support it now, let time run down but filibuster the 2nd half ratification May was going to seek at a later date..............basically they were bidding for time.

Reverend Gooner wrote:Most crucially if the MP's of all parties know no deal is not going to happen or can't be made to happen and that May's deal is an EU trap (and I assume they are all well aware of the real score of both matters), why is there clearly no majority for a second referendum? As that would give them the out of saying it was the 'people's decision' and not theirs.


A lot of MP's are scared to support a 2nd referendum because they become a target of over half the country who voted Leave, there is also the Party whips you have to consider and hence why our seeing resignations across the board showing there is definitely in fighting going on about this.
Labour's official position is Norway, which they've decided means they can face Leave supporters by claiming to have left the EU but they also keep all the EU perks and don't have to reinvent the countries import / export, trade and migration laws.
Corbyn has been scared to back a 2nd referendum because its basically a vote for Remain and there is a large swathe of Labour voters who backed Leave which people tend to underestimate .......... they seem to think all Leave voters were Conservative voters which it wasn't.

Reverend Gooner wrote:All that is left is a softer brexit (as the Tories are clearly afraid of an election) but that seems to be off the table too or an EU U turn on terms seems incredibly unlikely. I honestly don't see how any MP can want May's deal to pass considering the position it puts us in and means we may lose Gibraltar, Northern Ireland or both. That is why I am worried about the no deal supporters getting their way in the end,


Terms for May's Withdrawal agreement won't change where it matters which is the Backstop, that is essentially the EU ace which holds us because we are legally obliged to not break the backstop without an EU ratified alternative hence why its the sticking point and why the EU will not concede it, it removes their leverage if they do so that is off the table.

All that's left as you say is a Soft Brexit which is where we're heading under the May / Corbyn talks.

There is an outsiders chance if those talks fail they may just give up and agree to back a 2nd referendum citing no resolution on a deal but that causes two issues.
One supporting a 2nd referendum is seen as supporting Remain which May wouldn't want to do and possibly neither would Corbyn, two we don't know what the result of a 2nd ref would have as an outcome meaning Leave as in No Deal may win, if that does May would have to carry it out ............ and she won't.

The only outcome of a referendum that would be half acceptable would be a Soft Brexit but there's no guarantee it wins so Corbyn / May likely don't want to take the chance when Soft Brexit is something they could agree on between them and push through Parliament.

The issue with a Remain win in a 2nd ref is it cancels out Leave altogether causing all sorts of issues between Leave members and voters basically scrubbing out the last vote Parliament refused to carry out, which causes constitutional issues.......... it'll be civil war politics wise.

For Remain the best course of action would be Norway, then a vote years from now about whether we want to rejoin fully, that way essentially nothing changes, its just a membership issue.
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Re: British Politics

Postby Reverend Gooner » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:21 pm

Thanks for your replies Diamond, you really seem to know your stuff and I appreciate your input. We both see the soft brexit resolution as the most likely course but I was expecting at least a suggestion of May moving her red lines, even a report of a possibility, just to see the reaction but all the reports say she is steadfast to them which does not help to that end at all.

Pretty big news tonight as hard core brexiteer and Tory journalist Peter Oborne has written a mega piece on why Brexit is a mistake and needs to be stopped as it is clear the benefits we thought we would get are not going to happen and our future generations may not forgive us if we continue down this path. He is openly admitting his u turn and why. Very brave and hopefully many will see.

The remainer reaction is typically arrogant with comments like "but of course, well duh, how could you not see that before" which is super annoying as that is not going to help win people over to stand on the remainer side. The most interesting thing he said is that there are many openly and seemingly passionate pro brexit Tory MPs who actually feel like him and have changed their minds but don't dare express it. I hope others like him have the courage to speak out like this.
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