Reverend Gooner wrote:Apparently it is 200 Tory MPs that want no deal which is alot and all of the front runners for the next Tory leader are no deal believers, come December she is gone and they are in.
Which may explain May's change of tact as she has clearly displayed a will to get this agreement sorted asap, her now throwing the Con Leaver's under the bus to work with Labour is likely a last ditch attempt to get a deal done before the end of the year.
It also clearly shows that she never was going to entertain No Deal for her to drop her Leave support so easily, the only reason she cosy'd up to Leave is because she tried to get enough of them to support her deal .......... which clearly isn't enough hence why she's dumped them so brutally.
Reverend Gooner wrote:If May's deal is so bad (which I agree it is, especially if the EU countries are going to behave like that), why are so many conservative MPs voting for it? Is it because they know it won't pass so most back it to put up a united front? Surely in order to pull off something like that the Tory party would have to be way more united than it is reported to be.
Well they weren't voting for it, twice the motion got absolutely crushed, the latest one which was closer got the support of Leave because A) they're getting desperate and can see Parliament edging out No Deal altogether and B) May deliberately left out half the details of her withdrawal deal to make it more palatable for Leave to support it, I think Leave's view was support it now, let time run down but filibuster the 2nd half ratification May was going to seek at a later date..............basically they were bidding for time.
Reverend Gooner wrote:Most crucially if the MP's of all parties know no deal is not going to happen or can't be made to happen and that May's deal is an EU trap (and I assume they are all well aware of the real score of both matters), why is there clearly no majority for a second referendum? As that would give them the out of saying it was the 'people's decision' and not theirs.
A lot of MP's are scared to support a 2nd referendum because they become a target of over half the country who voted Leave, there is also the Party whips you have to consider and hence why our seeing resignations across the board showing there is definitely in fighting going on about this.
Labour's official position is Norway, which they've decided means they can face Leave supporters by claiming to have left the EU but they also keep all the EU perks and don't have to reinvent the countries import / export, trade and migration laws.
Corbyn has been scared to back a 2nd referendum because its basically a vote for Remain and there is a large swathe of Labour voters who backed Leave which people tend to underestimate .......... they seem to think all Leave voters were Conservative voters which it wasn't.
Reverend Gooner wrote:All that is left is a softer brexit (as the Tories are clearly afraid of an election) but that seems to be off the table too or an EU U turn on terms seems incredibly unlikely. I honestly don't see how any MP can want May's deal to pass considering the position it puts us in and means we may lose Gibraltar, Northern Ireland or both. That is why I am worried about the no deal supporters getting their way in the end,
Terms for May's Withdrawal agreement won't change where it matters which is the Backstop, that is essentially the EU ace which holds us because we are legally obliged to not break the backstop without an EU ratified alternative hence why its the sticking point and why the EU will not concede it, it removes their leverage if they do so that is off the table.
All that's left as you say is a Soft Brexit which is where we're heading under the May / Corbyn talks.
There is an outsiders chance if those talks fail they may just give up and agree to back a 2nd referendum citing no resolution on a deal but that causes two issues.
One supporting a 2nd referendum is seen as supporting Remain which May wouldn't want to do and possibly neither would Corbyn, two we don't know what the result of a 2nd ref would have as an outcome meaning Leave as in No Deal may win, if that does May would have to carry it out ............ and she won't.
The only outcome of a referendum that would be half acceptable would be a Soft Brexit but there's no guarantee it wins so Corbyn / May likely don't want to take the chance when Soft Brexit is something they could agree on between them and push through Parliament.
The issue with a Remain win in a 2nd ref is it cancels out Leave altogether causing all sorts of issues between Leave members and voters basically scrubbing out the last vote Parliament refused to carry out, which causes constitutional issues.......... it'll be civil war politics wise.
For Remain the best course of action would be Norway, then a vote years from now about whether we want to rejoin fully, that way essentially nothing changes, its just a membership issue.