jayramfootball wrote:Update in Florida.
Early Voting -
Democrat Registered : 3,380,997
Republican Registered : 3,290,773
Democrats lead by 1.05%
In 2016 this lead was 1.46% for Democrats going into election day
Unaffiliated votes : 1,828,892
Currently looking quite positive for Trump - UNLESS there are a bigger number of Republican registered that voted for Biden OR the Independent is more heavily skewed to Biden than it was in 2016.
Don't look at crosstabs yadda yadda yadda, but a recent Florida poll from Monmouth has independents breaking for Biden 51-37 (5% undecided), and Biden winning 7% of Republicans and 96% of Democrats.
Quinnipiac has indies breaking for Biden 50-32 (16% undecided), 90% Dems (6% undecided), and 6% Republicans (6% undecided).
And AFAIK undecideds usually break against the incumbent party in elections.
Biden cruises to a victory in Florida if those numbers hold.