American Politics

[LMAO]

As I've said, if Texas's early voting raw votes reaches the state's 2016 total votes, then there's the potential for a monumental, coup de grâce flip.

Most of Texas early voting is in person early voting.
If Texas is anything like Florida in terms of the mix between Dem registered and Republican registered in person early voting, it not that good news for Democrats.
Be careful on assuming early voting in Texas being so huge is in favour of Democrats.

We just don't know yet. Trump talking about Texas and the amount of activity there would suggest it is close, however.

Texas doesn't have party affiliation like Florida. But even so, that wouldn't paint a completely accurate picture with any party crossover and NPAs (no party affiliation).

Pay attention to Tarrant County on Tuesday. It's been eerily on the nose, like almost down to the same exact percentages, for Texas since 2008 (and close since 1996).

1996: Tarrant (Dole 50.9-41.6 Clinton), Texas (Dole 48.76-43.83 Clinton)
2000: Tarrant (Bush 60.7-36.8 Gore), Texas (Bush 59.30-37.98 Gore)
2004: Tarrant (Bush 62.4-37.0 Kerry), Texas (Bush 61.09-38.22 Kerry)
2008: Tarrant (McCain 55.4-43.7 Obama), Texas (McCain 55.45-43.68 Obama)
2012: Tarrant (Romney 57.1-41.4 Obama), Texas (Romney 57.17-41.38 Obama)
2016: Tarrant (Trump 51.7-43.1 Clinton), Texas (Trump 52.23-43.24 Clinton)

[LMAO]

Quite big problems for Democrats in Florida, potentially.
The Miami-Dade blue stronghold looks soft in EV numbers.
Florida is a state that gives a lot of detail about early voting.

Right now, the Republicans are winning the in-person early voting big - Republican registered in-person voting leads Democrat registered in-person voting by a massive 14% (in 2016 Democrats , by election day, Democrats led early in-person voting).

Democrats won big on mail in voting, so maybe they just mailed in instead of early voting in person.

Net net - Democrat registrations are still 1.58% ahead, but the in-person voting trend in going to reduce that to less than 1% by the end of EV on Sunday.
In 2016 Democrats took a 1.48% vote by registration lead in early voting into the election , which Trump won.

Of course, this does not tell the whole story - it depends on how many Dems vote red and how many R's vote blue - as well as how independents break.
But right now, just saw CNN panicking and Harris has rescheduled to go to Florida tomorrow.

Pay attention to The Villages on election night. Dave Wasserman said that if Trump doesn't win by at least a 2:1 margin there (he won 68-29 in 2016), then it's over for him in Florida.

[LMAO]

I thought Texas was an out and out Republican stronghold?

I know a lot of East and West coasters have migrated there in the last decade bringing with them at least one town full of Lefties but overall I thought Texas was red?

Texas's problem was it had crap turnout. Second worst of any state iirc

The days of Texas being the Republican crown jewel are over. Going forward, the state is either going to become purple or pull a California.

The same, but to a lesser extent since they're not as populous, applies to Georgia and Arizona.

[LMAO]

It has now been proven that the Hunter Biden conspiracy theory originates from a far-right conspiracy document that was written by a nonexistent person working for a nonexistent intelligence agency.

The document, a 64-page composition that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump, appears to be the work of a fake "intelligence firm" called Typhoon Investigations, according to researchers and public documents.

The author of the document, a self-identified Swiss security analyst named Martin Aspen, is a fabricated identity, according to analysis by disinformation researchers, who also concluded that Aspen's profile picture was created with an artificial intelligence face generator. The intelligence firm that Aspen lists as his previous employer said that no one by that name had ever worked for the company and that no one by that name lives in Switzerland, according to public records and social media searches.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/h ... e-n1245387

This is why the media (or at least the reasonable part of it) don't report on unverified claims.

On the flip side, remember all the talk about how Biden is going to be a foreign puppet yadda yadda yadda?

The Trump administration pressured federal prosecutors to settle an investigation into a state-owned Turkish bank suspected of violating U.S. sanctions law after President Trump received repeated pressure from Turkey’s president, The New York Times reported Thursday.

According to people briefed on the proposal, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan asked Trump to bring an end to an investigation into Halkbank over accusations of giving billions of dollars in gold and cash to Iran.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... ation-into

Original (but don't know if it's paywalled for y'all): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/us/p ... kbank.html

Gaslight
Obstruct
Project ← They are here.

[jayramfootball]

It has now been proven that the Hunter Biden conspiracy theory originates from a far-right conspiracy document that was written by a nonexistent person working for a nonexistent intelligence agency.

The document, a 64-page composition that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump, appears to be the work of a fake "intelligence firm" called Typhoon Investigations, according to researchers and public documents.

The author of the document, a self-identified Swiss security analyst named Martin Aspen, is a fabricated identity, according to analysis by disinformation researchers, who also concluded that Aspen's profile picture was created with an artificial intelligence face generator. The intelligence firm that Aspen lists as his previous employer said that no one by that name had ever worked for the company and that no one by that name lives in Switzerland, according to public records and social media searches.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/h ... e-n1245387

This is why the media (or at least the reasonable part of it) don't report on unverified claims.

Just no.
This is in itself an unverified document NOT RELATED AT ALL to Bobulinski's accusations.
The author of the document can not even be revealed.
It is in no way am exoneration of Biden.

CBS have now also confirmed that an active FBI investigation is underway.

[jayramfootball]

Quite big problems for Democrats in Florida, potentially.
The Miami-Dade blue stronghold looks soft in EV numbers.
Florida is a state that gives a lot of detail about early voting.

Right now, the Republicans are winning the in-person early voting big - Republican registered in-person voting leads Democrat registered in-person voting by a massive 14% (in 2016 Democrats , by election day, Democrats led early in-person voting).

Democrats won big on mail in voting, so maybe they just mailed in instead of early voting in person.

Net net - Democrat registrations are still 1.58% ahead, but the in-person voting trend in going to reduce that to less than 1% by the end of EV on Sunday.
In 2016 Democrats took a 1.48% vote by registration lead in early voting into the election , which Trump won.

Of course, this does not tell the whole story - it depends on how many Dems vote red and how many R's vote blue - as well as how independents break.
But right now, just saw CNN panicking and Harris has rescheduled to go to Florida tomorrow.

Pay attention to The Villages on election night. Dave Wasserman said that if Trump doesn't win by at least a 2:1 margin there (he won 68-29 in 2016), then it's over for him in Florida.

Yeah. Following along all the district's Vs 2016 .
Dems and Reps will go into election day poetry closer in terms of party registrations that have voted voted either by mail or in person.

Going to come down to turnout on the day.
One thing to note is that Rs have a lot more super voters left in the 'yet to vote' numbers.

[Va-Va-Voom]

If Biden is such a lock to win why aren't the betting odds wider?

I just checked and he's -180, I was expecting to see -600 or greater.

I think this is going to be much closer than most people are projecting.

[jayramfootball]

If Biden is such a lock to win why aren't the betting odds wider?

I just checked and he's -180, I was expecting to see -600 or greater.

I think this is going to be much closer than most people are projecting.

The US election is interesting in that it can be close but also a blow out - at the same time!
There are many states that are going to be close, but Biden has a big enough edge in the polling in all of them. he can win 6 or 7 close races end up between 350-400 electoral votes.

Bottom line - unless the polls are inaccurate - it's highly unlikely Trump wins.

That said - there are many on the left already celebrating. They stand to look like complete muppets if Biden doesn't win.

Nothing is ever certain in elections.

[LMAO]

If Biden is such a lock to win why aren't the betting odds wider?

I just checked and he's -180, I was expecting to see -600 or greater.

I think this is going to be much closer than most people are projecting.

Trumpers and doomers betting on Trump to be reelected moving the lines closer to even than what political forecasting models are predicting?

[Jedi]

That said - there are many on the left already celebrating. They stand to look like complete muppets if Biden doesn't win.

I keep seeing this message but I haven't seen a single person already celebrating. If anything, most people are super paranoid because of what happened in 2016.

If Biden is such a lock to win why aren't the betting odds wider?

I just checked and he's -180, I was expecting to see -600 or greater.

I think this is going to be much closer than most people are projecting.

I understand the logic of looking at betting markets and I tend to agree with it - there's no bias when it comes to money. But I've been following them from the start and I'm not impressed. They've had some very volatile stuff happen like Trump going from +125 to +270 in a matter of hours when he got his COVID diagnosis and then going back to +125 in a couple of days.

I think a lot of people saw what happened in 2016 so there's a lot of money on Trump winning which is artificially giving him better odds.

[jayramfootball]

That said - there are many on the left already celebrating. They stand to look like complete muppets if Biden doesn't win.

I keep seeing this message but I haven't seen a single person already celebrating. If anything, most people are super paranoid because of what happened in 2016.

I was not talking about people on here.
I would characterise the left-leaning folk on here as supremely confident without being certain. Fair enough. I guess that is a lesson they learned from 2016 and Brexit.

[Jedi]

That said - there are many on the left already celebrating. They stand to look like complete muppets if Biden doesn't win.

I keep seeing this message but I haven't seen a single person already celebrating. If anything, most people are super paranoid because of what happened in 2016.

I was not talking about people on here.
I would characterise the left-leaning folk on here as supremely confident without being certain. Fair enough. I guess that is a lesson they learned from 2016 and Brexit.

I didn't say you were talking about anyone on this forum. Where are you finding these people that are already celebrating?

[Callum]

That said - there are many on the left already celebrating. They stand to look like complete muppets if Biden doesn't win.

I keep seeing this message but I haven't seen a single person already celebrating. If anything, most people are super paranoid because of what happened in 2016.

I was not talking about people on here.
I would characterise the left-leaning folk on here as supremely confident without being certain. Fair enough. I guess that is a lesson they learned from 2016 and Brexit.

I didn't say you were talking about anyone on this forum. Where are you finding these people that are already celebrating?

I've seen the exact opposite—numerous folks on the left or at least against Trump who are extremely nervous and suffering from nerves after what happened in 2016.

[Santi]

Be unbelievably funny if trump somehow won again. Mon big Donny

[jayramfootball]

Biden and Harris have cancelled a number of Texas stops after more Trump supporters than Biden supporters kept showing up. They literally ran them out of town.



Crazy and absolutely disgusting. These are the extremist retards on the right.

With absolute f**ktards on the extreme right and left seemingly emboldened, things are not going to turn out well regardless of the result.