LMAO wrote:Yago wrote:Sanders won't lose dems the house (I believe the House is relatively safe). Regaining the senate is another thing, though.
My preference (with the disclaimer I'm not American):
1) Warren because she's f***ing great
2) Biden as I believe he'd help with the Senate, as well as being safer in swing states.
3) Sanders, should still have a good shot based on h2h, fracking ban puts PA in danger though (but still quite doable), FL is immediately off the table and AZ/NC are a bit more difficult than with Biden, I expect.
4/5) Klobuchar and Buttigieg would still be decent but are a little more risky in the GE.
6) Bloomberg sucks (can add Gabbard here too if she were at all relevant)
I'd expect Arizona to be in major play with Bernie because he's massively popular in the Latino community (and Scott Kelly may carry Bernie in AZ instead of the other way around). Florida is tricky because of the Cuban population, but Florida is close every time, so it could go either way. But, the biggest potential flip with Bernie's Latino popularity is Texas. If he can get Latinos to show up, then Texas will finally turn blue.
And from the Nevada entrance polls, Bernie is the most popular of the Democratic candidates with union members, so that swings Michigan and Pennsylvania back (Wisconsin is a toss-up because it's been getting redder) and puts Ohio in play.
For the Senate, I think Democrats need one more win to flip the chamber (assuming Jones doesn't get reelected in Alabama). Colorado is gone for Republicans, Arizona is looking good with Kelly, and Collins isn't looking too hot in Maine. That leaves North Carolina, Iowa, either of the Georgia seats, and Kansas. But if Bernie manages to flip Texas, then Cornyn may be waving bye-bye. I feel better about the Senate map in 2020 than I did in 2018.
Agree with the House. It should remain blue.
Also just reacting to this:
1) I'm assuming you mean Mark Kelly, who I agree is great and will help in AZ. Bernie's popularity with latinos is a good sign, but AZ is oooold. It has been moving towards democrats for a while though, and I think it's a safer bet than Wisconsin at this point.
2) Michigan is indeed swinging back. We saw a similar thing in PA, it's just that backing a fracking ban will definitely make things harder there - and that includes the unions, who will (as reported in the media) see this as a reason not to back Sanders there.
3) Ohio is not in play. Loool. You mention Wisconsin getting redder, but Ohio is that x10. I'd expect Democrats to win AZ, NC, FL, GA, WI, IA and even TX before Ohio ever comes into play. That state is gone, man.
4) Speaking of... He's not winning Texas. Beto didn't manage in 2018, and Bernie is not going to come close to his performance there (it's a presidential year, too...). It's moving towards dems, but isn't there yet. Cornyn is also safe, as none of the potential senate candidates there are impressive, and he still has good favourables.
5) CO is a safe D pickup by now, and things are looking very good for Kelly. Collins is in trouble, although that one isn't decided quite yet. The best hope for the crucial 50th seat would then be NC, where Cunningham has been doing really well. Cooper is a popular governor and will help there (and should also help on the presidential level). If not NC, it's gonna be difficult. An outside shot at Kansas if Kobach wins the republican primary (but still a very slim one), either of the 2 GA seats (the special election probably slightly more likely) or IA which isn't looking hot.