by jgaugust » Fri Sep 21, 2012 10:13 pm
As a particularly politically active American, barring any sort of major international incident (yes, it would need to be far worse than Libya) or complete economic collapse as a result of QE3 (won't happen. QE is a smart economic policy and finally the Fed is doing it in the right fashion after completely botching QE2), Obama will be re-elected. I couldn't be happier.
Not only is it likely that he will be re-elected, but the Dems will gain about 10-15 House seats. The Senate is far trickier to predict at this point, but it actually wouldn't surprise me if we took seats in Indiana, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. The fact that an incumbent GOP senator in Tennessee is having major reelection issues tells us all we need to know about the current state of the Republican party.
Also, Jay, I don't want to start a flame war, but anyone who actually supports Ron Paul is completely mindless regarding how our Constitution has developed since this nation's conception. Trying to abolish things like the Fed, DOE, EPA, and other major federal organizations is absolutely beyond the pale.
Admittedly, I'm not exactly sure how much of US politics gets covered in truly great detail in the UK, but in actuality Obama has done a tremendous amount in his 4 years (most of it in his first 2 when we had control of both Congressional houses). In 2010 when the Tea Party rose up and somehow elected numerous unqualified Congressmen, there has been absolute intransigence in Congress. It's kinda hard to get policies passed when one party openly declared two years ago that its primary mission was to get the President un-elected in 2012, no? I mean, for f**k's sake, the Senate GOP on Wednesday stalled a bill that would have allowed US veterans to get more job training and access to both private and public sector jobs in police, fire, and EMS services.
I could go on and explain why classical economics is a joke of a theory (and hence why any form of Conservative economic theory is patently insane except in the most ideal of capitalistic societies where those with more money actually reinvest in their companies and persons, which is obviously not the case today), but I think that there has been enough explanation of this point by recent Nobel Prize winners in the field. I am willing to debate anyone on this point here, should they want to. I do actually enjoy such conversations.
Anyways, bottom line: Obama will be re-elected (likely with an electoral vote score of around 310-320), the Dems will gain more in the House, and likely retain Senate control.