LMAO wrote:I wouldn't be so sure. The Tea Party wing of the GOP made a huge splash in the House in 2010 and almost took back the Senate, yet Obama beat Romney pretty solidly in 2012. Democrats got killed in both houses during the '94 midterms, yet Clinton comfortably won reelection in '96. Republicans did poorly in the '86 midterms, but Bush Sr. cruised to victory in '88 (granted, he wasn't the incumbent, but he was Reagan's VP). Same in 1970; Nixon was a "lame-duck" but absolutely destroyed McGovern in '72.
It'll mostly depend on how the electorate sees the economy and national security around August-September 2024. As much as I don't like it, a good chunk of Americans have short memories and are more of 'in the moment' thinkers.
Honestly, I'd love 2024 to be a matchup of Biden and Phil Scott (Vermont governor). He is currently the only Republican that would actually make me think twice as I'd love for the GOP to be dominated by Rockefeller Republicans and be a sane counterweight to Democrats (if they were the dominant wing of the GOP, then I'd probably be one tbh). But, Scott is waaaaaaay too liberal for the contemporary GOP national base.
Both Obama and Clinton were standing at +10% in their personal polling - Biden is underwater at -10% ....
Whilst there is no guarantee that a popular President can overcome a mid-term reverse the examples you highlight managed it - I couldn't find a single example in US history of an unpopular President managing it (not without a major war)
Most elections are won and lost on how Joe voter feels about the dollar in his pocket - it's the economy stupid - even if Biden were to miraculously spin the economy back up, not sure he can do it fast enough to save him at the midterms.
The Virginia vote will be interesting - +10 points statewide for Biden - that would be a massive swing if the Reps can turn it over for Governor ... a real vote rather than what have proven to be wildly inaccurate polls ... I don't believe that they can, but they might.
Phil Scott would walk it - he has maintained massive support in a traditional swing state - good choice.